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LeftWingMaleAdvocates top posts and comments for the week of September 06 - September 12

2020.09.13 17:04 subredditsummarybot LeftWingMaleAdvocates top posts and comments for the week of September 06 - September 12

Sunday, September 06 - Saturday, September 12

Top 10 Posts

score comments title & link
151 77 comments Why can't women understand that dating is fucking hard as a guy and that some men want to be pursued too?
110 49 comments Why women get equal pay if they don't generate equal revenue ? In 2020 "gender equality" is more like female privilege and supremacy.
95 13 comments Men's rights book " Dehumanizing the male " has reached n° 1 in the category "gender studies" of Amazon Spain.
93 30 comments Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to be a hoax. Disturbing that the UN, that should be there for all people, spouts such sexist nonsense.
93 34 comments Suicide prevention... by blaming it on 'men being too proud'?
85 12 comments Having women in power will lead to less war and more compassion ?!
77 9 comments Debunking "himpathy"... all the data show both men and women have substantially more sympathy for women across the board
75 69 comments Could police brutality be considered a gender issue along with a race issue?
74 5 comments Male circumcision campaigns in Africa to fight HIV are a form of cultural imperialism
69 29 comments BBC doc about false rape accusation victims - 80 false accusations a week in the UK, 8% of total
 

Top 10 Comments

score comment
57 a-man-from-earth said "What we all know"... Such abject nonsense is unworthy of the UN. But encouraging to see they did get ratioed.
56 Forgetaboutthelonely said This is another part of why I've loathe the term "toxic masculinity"
55 genealogical_gunshow said If you ever get in this discussion again, offer to let the person run your dating profile for a week. Or, let them create a profile of you. Let them make every single change they suggest. Allow the...
49 liltotto said It’s undeniably also a gender issue, but since it highlights female privilege, it won’t get much if any attention.
42 EpsilonFactor633 said Take a look at Nora Vincent's book Self-Made Man. She tried to masquerade as a man to see what life was like (she wasn't trans; she just dressed in men's clothes and tried to adopt mannerisms of m...
42 mattex456 said Can anyone give me any possible ideas on how covid demonstrated our supposed problem with patriarchy? I literally can't think of one.
40 Mr-X1 said Lol at "himpathy." That people can even come up with something that is so obviously the opposite of the truth.
36 GalileosTele said If they were objectively looking at data it would be considered first and gender issue, then an age issue, and thirdly a race issue. But it is worldwide policy that gender issues only count if girls ...
35 lorarc said The problem with messages like that is that they usually affect men who are empathic and nice and timid, not those who actually disrespect women. We need more positive things rather than trying to sto...
34 Selfdisciplinedlife said The main mod of that sub is a chief submitter to menslib and he deletes anything that is male centric. That’s what menslib is about - women first. That sub is practically dead anyway.
 
submitted by subredditsummarybot to LeftWingMaleAdvocates [link] [comments]


2020.09.13 14:16 HomerQuotingHomer Part 2: The case for #FlattentheCurve – the significant costs and benefits of elimination and lockdown, including perspective on ‘long-term effects’ alarmism

Part 2: The case for #FlattentheCurve – the significant costs and benefits of elimination and lockdown, including perspective on ‘long-term effects’ alarmism
Part 2: The case for #FlattentheCurve – the significant costs and benefits of elimination and lockdown, including perspective on ‘long-term effects’ alarmism
Preface
In the first post of 'The case for #FlattentheCurve' I dedicated some time to the question of:
“Are we being successful; by what standard?”
This question is a much better question than making arguments from a position of “who’s right and wrong?” (i.e. generally how the Sweden debate is framed). We should be looking to optimise our strategy and using this frame we could still improve our approaches even if we were to believe we are the best in the world.
I also pointed out that we should bring some perspective to the issue of COVID-19 mortality as compared to background mortality. We should recognise that there is an inherent need for public policy to weigh up the “value of a life” and the “quality of life” alongside many other measures of public good – personal freedoms, economic outcomes, education, social cohesion, etc.
Put plainly, a human life cannot be “priceless” otherwise we would attempt to take no risks and counter-productively shorten our own lives (and certainly destroy our happiness and prosperity). If we were to pretend that human lives are priceless and seek to protect them “at all costs” then we would degrade our ability sustain overall public health and good (given limited resources). For example:
The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee rejects 69 per cent of anti-cancer drugs because they are not cost-effective.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/we-could-be-saving-lives-for-less-than-6m-each-20200406-p54hie
So, there is obviously a need to consider whether the Australia’s strategy for COVID-19 is balanced. I think everyone will understand this is worthwhile thing to assess. Unfortunately, it is largely ignored in the daily cycle of cases and deaths. Even worse, the topic can become a point scoring exercise over narrow data-points.
So, this post is intended to extend the discussion from fundamentals of the “skeptical position” (Part 1) to a view of whether the cost and benefit trade-off from our approach to SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 makes sense. As I asserted in Part 1:
“COVID-19 currently holds a very special place in [our willingness to pay to reduce the risk of death]. Governments, at least in Australasia, have had a sudden and massively increased willingness to incur unprecedented costs (not just financial expense) to reduce the risk of death. The appetite to do “whatever it takes” is not being applied simply to those who are truly at risk, but also to prevent any transmission to those who are not at much risk at all.”
I am attempting to put that assertion to the test here in the best way that I can. I would very much welcome any constructive critique, discussion, or recommendations to improve the analysis. I have tried to layout the basis and data as simply as possible.
… Everyone right to go?
Framing the discussion
Per Part 1, there is a need to outline some key points to frame the discussion.
First, the IFR of COVID-19 is undergoing continual revision and is variously estimated by different authorities and studies, e.g. ~0.6% (WHO), and ~0.4% in the above study. The IFR is also likely to be variable by region and demographics. For example, a recently study puts the IFR at 0.3% for Icelanders:
Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116
The point of this is not to say that COVID-19 is not deadly. That would be ignoring the mortality that has already happened. However, we do need to recognise that the originally feared IFR (2.5%+) has not eventuated, and accordingly we should factor this into our weighing our response moving forward. We should also consider whether that fear drove us to take actions which were disproportionately costly to the threat posed.
Second, is that the mortality risks of COVID-19 within the general population are well established. The risk stratifies to the elderly and those with comorbidities.
The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching 0.4% at age 55, 1.3% at age 65, 4.5% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. We find that differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 explain 90% of the geographical variation in population IFR. Consequently, protecting vulnerable age groups could substantially reduce the incidence of mortality
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4.full.pdf
This knowledge should influence the way we view the mortality impact of COVID-19 as compared to our expectations of mortality in normal settings. We know that as you get older your mortality increases and your life expectancy decreases. Utility and quality of life also tends to degrade, although the experience is different from individual to individual, so is difficult to weigh. We do know that as you enter aged-care facilities or palliative care you are probably nearing the end of your life (an unfortunate reality).
Thirdly, we are going to need to find a way to quantify “the benefits and costs” of our strategy. This means that we need to attribute some value to a “life year” for the analysis. From my research, Australia does not have a set standard for the value of a life year (or I couldn’t find it). So I have referred to the number used by Professor Tony Blakely and Professor Nick Wilson in their March 2020 analysis:
How much do we spend to try to reap this expected gain? Based on rules of thumb in the health sector (e.g. decisions on which medicines to approve and fund) – about $A100,000 per life year.
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-maths-and-ethics-of-minimising-covid-19-deaths
Another good baseline is to look at our overall healthcare expenditure. According to this source:
In 2017–18, an estimated $185.4 billion was spent on health goods and services in Australia. This equates to an average of approximately $7,485 per person https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/health-welfare-expenditure/health-expenditure-australia-2017-18/contents/summary
It is worth noting that includes personal, private insurance and non-government spending; with Federal and State combined spending at ~127 billion. Apparently, our spending is 7th highest in the OECD, so we can probably safely say that Australia’s appetite for spending to achieve better health outcomes is quite high.
Perspective on ‘long-term effects’ alarmism
One of the persistent points of concern is that of the potential “long-term” or chronic illnesses which could result from COVID-19. I expect it would be raised in reply to this post. You could make comparisons between this and the initial fears for the IFR; in the absence of good data (and responsible reporting) people will assume the worst possible or most extreme outcome is going to eventuate.
This video by a UK Cardiologist, shared by u/frawks24, does a really good job of putting quite a bit of the alarmism into perspective.
But, how to approach it in this analysis?
It is quite difficult because there simply is not a great deal of data or meta-analysis for ‘chronic illness or morbidity’ as being a widespread issue following COVID-19 recovery. Studies have commenced but they a long way from being completed. Some initial studies have been conducted but they demonstrate narrow effects or have even been debunked / retracted.
There are plenty of anecdotes, alarmist articles and social media posts, but nothing all that substantive so far in terms of systemic studies. Apparent illnesses following COVID-19 range from headaches and lethargy, all the way through the horrible burning pains for months on end. People are claiming all kinds of things, making comparisons to HIV, and generally conflating so called “mounting evidence” with actual evidence.
Governments which have seen widespread community transmission and recoveries are not (yet) raising the alarm over a sudden increase in other chronic illnesses popping up across their populations. Of note:
  • There has been something like ~28m confirmed infections of COVID-19 worldwide. A magnitude more cases will have gone undetected and will have been largely asymptomatic or had mild symptoms. The estimates for this range significantly (10 times seems to be suggested as a rule of thumb, but some estimates are much higher) and there is some good background on this topic here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models.
  • Some people are saying they have non-chronic but noticeable symptoms which linger for a period post recovery, although it is difficult to get an actual proportion of these against confirmed cases.
  • Still fewer people than this are claiming / attributing more serious chronic illnesses or conditions. The instances of these seem to be largely anecdotal and very rare as far as I can tell.
Anyway, the point of raising it is that I am not going to simply dismiss ‘long-term effects’ in my analysis. Instead, I am going to make an explicit assumption that there are some long-term effects for some proportion of the population. However, I am not going to assume it is delayed ebola virus where your organs melt after 12 months’ time. That does not seem reasonable.
More to come on this later.
Establishing a range of ‘years of life’ saved
We need to start with a baseline of the years of life we expect we will have saved by pursuing the path we have.
In the first post I provided the example of Japan, which did not implement any general lockdown, has much greater community transmission, and an older population - yet has roughly one-third the death rate per million that we do in Australia. It achieved this specifically by protecting aged-care facilities and the vulnerable. Yet, we are told there is “only one option” for Australia…Anyway, that was the last post.
For the purpose of this analysis I am going to look at a range of potential mortality outcomes under alternative settings. This does not require any fancy or difficult calculations, because we can simply look at deaths per million from overseas.
Confirmed deaths per million - Sep'10 2020 Source: Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/graphetotal-covid-cases-deaths-per-million?tab=table&year=latest&time=2019-12-31..2020-09-10
Imgur: https://imgur.com/Xc3zKf8
San Marino and Andorra are very small countries, so we will remove them from our analysis, and take the average of the remaining countries, as well as the world average, which gives:

https://preview.redd.it/ab6u9orrewm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d65952290ec80efa40204817a4fc41902d2d955
Imgur: https://imgur.com/bMSOwUz
Australia’s current population is ~25.5m. So, a proxy for lives saved to-date would be between 2,200 and 16,200 lives (just by scaling to the top and average death rates above). This estimate is actually a little bit higher than Federal CHO Brendan Murphy’s estimate of 14,000 avoided deaths.
Now, let us calculate the expected age-stratification of those deaths. I will apply the Australian mortality data, and to cross-check I have also selected Italy given that we have much lower transmission.
This provides the following results:
https://preview.redd.it/pfhcoqczewm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e02f4165a464f0881d3978aac4286d54320c50e
Imgur: https://imgur.com/ZORFpDp
What we see here is that applying Italy’s mortality seems to output a greater burden on the young. So, if we use Italy as the assumption then our ‘life years” saved will be greater (i.e. we assume we are saving more life years). We can reference the Australian Life Tables as a guide to calculating an expected “numbers of years lost” for each age group, as follows:
https://preview.redd.it/6oyruzs2fwm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e937da44f1a2f5c9e0598e6b644a4d0cb0ed155
Imgur: https://imgur.com/cRzjoar
So that gives us a range of ‘gross life years saved’ between ~27,000 and ~203,000 to-date, prior to any adjustments we need to make.
Excess mortality and adjusting for real-world observations
You will hopefully note that there are two material adjustments which are required:
  1. The substantive proportion of deaths are in aged care (70%; 588 Australia-wide; 557 in Victoria), in which individuals tend to have a much lower life expectancy than the general population. Adjusting for this will bring down ‘life years saved’ as average life expectancy in aged care is 2 to 3 years. If we are conservative (again) and say that 40% of the overall deaths (from ages 70+) would have been aged-care related, then that would bring the overall ‘years of life saved’ to a ‘high-end’ of 160,421.
  2. COVID-19 mortality substantially impacts individuals with comorbidities. These are also individuals which will have a lower life expectancy than the average. However, this would be complex to calculate because we would need establish specific comorbidities impacted for Australia, and the relative life expectancy with those. So, we will exclude any adjustment for this.
By this stage we can see we have built a conservative view of life years saved by assuming more deaths and only adjusting the aged-care factor, not comorbidities. There is a further consideration that we could make, which is whether any of the ‘lives saved’ in our projection would part of background mortality or excess mortality.
Put another way, given that ~160,000 Australian’s die per annum would the ~16,200 lives saved (high-end) in this analysis be entirely in excess to that (i.e. they would not have died except for COVID-19)? Probably not. However, in the interests of keeping this simple (and conservative) I will assume that these are entirely excess deaths.
I will use the figure provided by Professor Blakely of $100,000 AUD per life year; if it is good enough for him, it is good enough for me.
This equates to ~$16bn. A pretty large number. No wonder elimination and lockdowns seemed like a great idea in March… even more so when doomsday mortality figures were being thrown around. Let us move on to the next section.
Mounting costs of massive government intervention
I’ll start this section by saying that it is obvious Victoria is creating all kinds of issues, not just for the people of Victoria who are enduring the longest and strictest lockdown in a western democracy, but for the national strategy.
Stepping back. In March, the Grattan Institute said ‘shutdown’ for 8 to 12 weeks (Endgame C) and wait for a vaccine if it was coming shortly. Unless of course the 8 to 12 week shutdown was not successful, in which case we should #FlattentheCurve (Endgame A). There are a few things they did not account for:
  • Each state taking divergent paths.
  • Victoria being the only state to fail in its control of the virus.
  • Other states slamming their borders shut until zero is achieved.
Hence, as a nation we are essentially ‘locked in’ to ‘locking down’ Victorians, otherwise the country cannot re-open. Either that or Victoria will be isolated (unless there were some partnership with NSW). This ‘critical flaw’ was always inherent in the elimination strategy because once started there was no way to force the states to work together in changing circumstances (and they have not).
Recalling a quote from Part 1:
“Not surprisingly, willingness to pay to reduce the risk of death varies significantly with the type of death.”
It bears repeating that COVID-19 seems to hold a special place on our willingness to do “whatever it takes”. So, we should reflect for a moment on whether the costs we are incurring to eliminate COVID-19 makes sense when compared to normal settings.
Let's look at the fiscal costs which have been incurred to-date. From a federal perspective, the Parliamentary Budget Office provides a good summary of the fiscal impact - noting that this is pre-extension of lockdown in Victoria.
“The analysis shows that the impact of COVID-19 may result in Commonwealth Government net debt in 2029–30 being between 14 and 24 per cent of GDP (up to $800 billion) higher than it would have been otherwise, as shown in the chart”
And…
“Any new spending measures, unless offset by other savings, would result in a further deterioration in the fiscal aggregates in these scenarios.”
In fact, the fiscal forecast has continued to deteriorate month-on-month since April, and is likely to continue to do so as the lockdown in Victoria is ongoing, international borders remain closed, and hard borders across the country prevent the recovery of key industries and economic drivers (tourism, migration, hospitality, etc.). State debts are also ballooning with Victoria’s predicament looking particularly dire right now. Given the $116bn hit is estimated for inner Melbourne alone, we can be pretty certain that the overall economic situation is looking pretty bad.
Scott Morrison’s ‘hibernate the economy’ concept which he touted at the outset of pandemic was a complete fallacy. I believe it was misleading. It is increasingly looking like the cost of COVID-19, including the drive to achieve elimination, could be well north of 1 trillion AUD when you combine lost GDP, as well as ballooning federal and state government debts.
Of course, we could not attribute all of this to our strategic choice of elimination. A recent paper by a New Zealand economist Dr Martin Lally, who analyses the cost/benefit of the New Zealand approach, makes the following point:
“Some of these GDP losses would have arisen without any government-imposed restrictions, because some people would have reduced their interactions with others anyway; for example, a foreigner electing not to make a trip to New Zealand that they would otherwise have made. Further losses would have arisen due to the additional actions of foreign governments; for example, foreign governments preventing their citizens from making foreign trips. Further losses would have arisen if the New Zealand government had followed merely a mitigation strategy. Further losses would have arisen from the New Zealand government instead following a suppression strategy. It is only the last of these losses that can be attributed to the New Zealand government choosing to lockdown rather than mitigate.”
Dr Lally suggests 25% of New Zealand’s overall projected GDP impact as attributable to lockdown, and that is also prior to their second lockdown in Auckland.
It is right to claim that we would have seen significant impacts from COVID-19 even without lockdowns and hard borders in Australia. However, it is relatively indisputable that the forced closure businesses and industries by the government, and repeated lockdowns, is going to incur a very heavy cost on its own as well.
Even if we only assume that only 10% of the potential GDP impact of $800bn (ignoring state debts etc.) is due to lockdowns, hard borders, and other restrictions then we are looking at an $80bn cost. If we used 25% (Dr Lally’s number), we would have a range between $80bn to $200bn.
Using the 'lower-end' 80bn, this equates to ~$500K to ‘per life year saved’ under our high-end projection - which is 5 times higher than Professor Blakely’s value for a life year. At the low-end projection of life years saved it would be nearly $3m per life year. Given the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee generally approve drugs and medicines which cost less than $50K per quality adjusted life year, we know that we’re in pretty rich territory in terms of our intervention costs so far.
Another way to put it in perspective is that the cost ‘per life’ (rather than life year) would be ~$5m. For this kind cost to make sense under normal settings, then every single death / life saved (in our high projection), of the ~16,000, would need to be a relatively young adult with 40 years of life ahead of them. We know that is not the case from the IFR data.
So, at this point we have some reasonable assumptions for what we could call our “core” benefits and costs. However, there are two ‘quality of life’ assumptions we should be attributing some values to and the magnitude of these numbers could swing things substantially:
  1. Benefits from avoiding long-term effects
  2. Temporary ‘people and society’ costs as a result of lockdowns
Onwards! If you're still with me...
Assuming some numbers for ‘long-term effects’
Earlier I provided some perspective on ‘long-term effects’; recognising that we should factor in some cost because we don’t yet know the extent of this (maybe it's real, maybe it's not). A calculation for long-term effects could also be a reasonable proxy for the often stated “fear of contagion” negative impacts if we had community transmission occurring.
So, for the purposes of this analysis let us use the following assumptions:
  • A portion of COVID-19 recoveries would either have lingering symptoms which temporarily reduce their quality of life (say for 6 months).
  • A small proportion will incur some sort of chronic illness for the rest of their lives. We will also assume that the likelihood of these occurring follows the age-stratification as COVID-19 mortality, which intuitively makes sense given risk of illness and chronic illness increases as you age.
So I am going to base the analysis on the following parameters, and these produce some pretty substantive numbers:
  • 60% of the Australian population are infected before we achieve a natural level of herd immunity and the pandemic subsides; ~15.2m people
  • 10% have ‘lingering symptoms’ temporarily reducing their quality of life; ~1.5m people. We will quantify their illness by saying that their quality of life is reduced by 20% before they fully recover over a period of six months. These are reasonably bad symptoms for a lot of people.
  • 0.5% suffers a chronic illness as a result; ~75,000 people. They will lose a 25% of their remaining life expectancy. That’s a fairly substantial impact.
This is what the ‘years of life’ looks like for those assumptions:
https://preview.redd.it/96b71qusfwm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=52693cbcc71b4cecdf977f7ab14da964fcdbe34f
Imgur: https://imgur.com/Vbbk0hf
These are some staggering figures given that they are actually greater than ‘years of life saved’ we calculated earlier. Still, that is what people seem to be fearing so we will keep them for our purposes. The ‘benefits’ accrued by avoiding this, again using the $100,000 AUD figure, would be ~$39bn AUD.
This is a significant number and even if it is only a general assumption it is quite revealing of something else. The hyper-focus on deaths and preventing deaths (by government and media), with little value attributed to other aspects of life, misses what is a much larger part of the overall equation....
... which takes us to the next section.
Costs on people and society
Aside from GDP, there are other costs to our lives as a result of our strategy. Many of the things which are typically of value and importance to us have been temporarily taken away – such as the ability to see family who are interstate, travel, and larger social events. We know that people are being prevented or restricted from participating in some of the important milestones of their lives, such as funerals, weddings, birthdays, births, etc. These are all "worth something". As is the ability to exercise your own agency, work and just generally determine your own day.
I do not want to labour the point or make this too complex, so for the purposes of this analysis let us say that for every state, except Victoria, the balance is OK on a temporary basis (until the vaccine). The restrictions on life in these states are generally reasonable (unless you are unlucky), and as such the overall quality of life in 2020 is pretty much as it was in 2019.
Victoria is another story entirely. Some will have been devastated, some will be hanging in there, and others will be doing OK for now and just want it to be over. Every single one has had their lives impacted in some way though. For all intent and purposes, this is not a dissimilar calculation to the concept of ‘lingering effects’ in that Victorians have had some faculty they valued taken away temporarily. Even if you support the measures and you're a Victorian, there will have been some personal cost to you (unless you already lived inside 23 hours a day and never ventured outside your suburb).
Intuitively (and it has been reported as such), the costs of these measures will more greatly affect the younger age groups, who are more social and physically active. It still is not without cost to the elderly who are no doubt more isolated than ever before. So, if we assume that overall quality of life for Victorians over the last 6 months (or until 24 October) has only been reduced by a maximum of 10% in any age group (5% for the elderly) then we get something like the below.

https://preview.redd.it/xg7kmfb3gwm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=97a28e70e5f6cfd6bb3dbf0c0656e8628f0fcdae
Imgur: https://imgur.com/ArPCgIW
Converting to monetary terms, in the same way as above, this equates to ~$25.4bn.
It’s not near the level of ‘long-term effects’ that we calculated above, but it is not insignificant (and it is probably underestimated given the severity of actual restrictions in Victoria).
This also does not include any of the costs associated with chronic illness or deaths which might be exacerbated by the lockdowns. For example, we know that Victoria has some inordinate number of elective surgeries that have been delayed. I am not going to try and calculate those here, but they are no doubt significant as well. If you do not believe that the above ‘quality of life’ figure is reasonable, then you might choose to use it as a proxy for exacerbated illnesses… or calculate your own.
Playing (or is it praying?) for a vaccine
So, we know the vaccine is close right? We bloody well hope it is given the state of things.
Let us assume we get it before end-March 2021 and it is 100% effective, which means that we have saved every life year we would have otherwise lost in the above analysis. Victoria comes out of lockdown on time and the nation re-opens by Christmas. We do not end up spending any more money intervening through lockdown measures by that point (it's all baked in).
Under this kind of described scenario, I should increase the ‘life years saved’ because presumably we will "save more lives" over the subsequent six months. In fact, in the interests of remaining conservative, I will double that benefit and only use the low-end fiscal costs.
What does the summary look like then?
https://preview.redd.it/gkmd4yu9gwm51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=87f01a97a5f9c030a93340f99b7735205e0e5297
Imgur: https://imgur.com/4ZtxHfe
It looks like we are well and truly underwater in terms of strategy; by some ~$30bn. Even if you make no allowance for the temporary ‘quality of life costs’ of lockdown in Victoria, but assume you will have avoided long-term effects, the equation still appears to be negative for our strategy.
How would we reconcile this given we were told this is the best way? Or the "only way" if you're in Victoria.
The elimination and lockdown strategy may have made sense at 8 to 12 weeks, but it's downside risks and costs were vastly underestimated. In the panic of March 2020, an “at all costs” approach probably made sense. If the mortality rate from COVID-19 was 2.5%, then it would have been justified. However, the mortality rate is simple is not that high in observation. Further to this, if the vaccine does not prove to be fully effective at preventing community transmission and mortality from COVID-19, then our claimed benefits can only get worse.
In fact, if you support elimination and lockdown at this point, a useful question worth asking is:
  • How many lives do we have to save for the elimination and lockdown strategy to be successful?
  • If the vaccine isn't fully effective, is a 90% reduction in comparative mortality good enough? How about a 50% reduction?
  • Do we need to guarantee zero excess deaths from COVID-19 before we re-open?
Before I close out, how might I interpret my own analysis in a way that is a counterfactual to support the ‘elimination and lockdown’ argument?
  • Victoria’s bungling has cost the whole nation dearly (and Victorians obviously)
  • If not for Victoria, we would have been shutdown for only 8 to 12 weeks nationally.
  • If not for Victoria, then the national borders would be open and the impact to the nation would be far less than it will end up being. We would in fact be recovering very quickly.
  • Therefore 'staying the course' makes sense for the majority of Australians based on the current settings they are experiencing (but perhaps not when all the costs are counted at 'the end').
Closing comment
If you have managed to get through this ~5000 word analysis / argument, then I say to you “congratulations, but what are you doing with your life?”… :)
Really though, you may vehemently disagree on the assertions, calculations, or assumptions used here. You may agree in parts, but think some of these are underestimated or overestimated. Ultimately, this is to prompt discussion and I will correct any mistakes I've made or even happy to make reasoned adjustments.
Any feedback or genuine discussion is much appreciated.
submitted by HomerQuotingHomer to CoronavirusDownunder [link] [comments]


2020.09.07 23:18 DJTilapia 100 Objects "The Conspiracy" Is Transporting

Actually, that's a lie (of course, that's what conspiracies do): I have just 90 ideas so far, but I would be very happy to add your suggestions. I've seen how creative people can be on this subreddit, and I'm sure we can easily fill that out to 100 (edit: and so you did; thank you everyone)! Please steer away from a modern politics, though. Also, I'm sure there are a thousand more interesting objects described in the SCP Foundation, but I've not consulted it.

50 Small Objects

These might be found in a briefcase or even a pocket:
  1. A 3D compass of sorts, that always points to a region of space that appears empty in contemporary sky surveys (courtesy u/Delarhi).
  2. An agreement between Pope Boniface IX and several Jewish leaders, cordially setting out how the church will persecute the Jews publicly, while the two groups cooperate behind the scenes to forward their agendas. [Note: No offense intended. I probably shouldn't start this list with something so sensitive, it's just alphabetical order.]
  3. An album from Paul McCartney, dated to 1968 and unlike anything released to the public. The end of the record seems to be just noise, but if filtered just so there’s a rambling spoken word poem about conspiracies. Half of it is true.
  4. An audio tape. It alternates between a man’s voice and bizarre sounds no human mouth could produce. Are the two able to communicate, or is it a one-sided conversation?
  5. Bees, in hibernation. What does their venom do?
  6. A belt, made of wolf’s hide and decorated with bone and amber. What does it do if you wear it (and does it matter if the moon is full)?
  7. Biowarfare samples. Is the glass cracked?
  8. A box of passionate letters between Abraham Lincoln and a young man, dated to the early 1870s.
  9. A brain, in ice. Whose is it?
  10. A butterfly case. None of the species are known to the scientific community.
  11. A canister containing some liquid that only interacts with the canister. If you stick your hand or something in the fluid behaves as if it's not there. If poured out of the canister it simply falls through the ground (courtesy u/Delarhi).
  12. A canister of azidoazide azide.
  13. A chunk of ice which, if it comes into contact with water or living tissue, converts it to more of the ice. If dropped into the ocean, could it destroy all life on earth?
  14. Clay bricks, very old but showing traces of indigo paint. Anyone touching one can speak and understand any human language.
  15. Cold cash. Who will come looking for this?
  16. A computer tape. On it is code for an AI which is capable of controlling almost any computer onto which it is loaded.
  17. A curiously glittering piece of cloth. It renders objects invisible to radar.
  18. A crystal skull.
  19. A deformed fetus. Is it an alien-human hybrid?
  20. False identities. Or are they real people?
  21. Film of a cryptid, very clear and high-quality. Which one: bigfoot, chupacabra, the Jersey Devil, the Loch Ness monster?
  22. Frozen eggs, sperm, or cloned fertile eggs. Who are they from? Elites, leaders, or enemies of the conspiracy?
  23. Functional X-ray goggles.
  24. Fungi. They’re of no known type, but the spores will infect and grow on living flesh.
  25. An incredibly ancient leather pouch containing five smooth stones, as well as a sling (courtesy of u/SamAre_I15).
  26. A pair of glasses which allow the wearer to see strange worm-like creatures apparently floating in the air. Can they see you?
  27. Gold bars. What makes them special?
  28. A handful of silver coins, very tarnished.
  29. An iPod, almost encased in metamorphic rock which dates to 27 million years old.
  30. A journal from Roanoke, describing how “strange naked men appeared, with ashen skin, and promised to deliver us from our deprivation.”
  31. A large iron nail, marked with rust. Or is that dried blood?
  32. Letters between Shakespeare and Christopher Marlowe, in which the former blackmails the latter into giving credit for the plays he’s written.
  33. A manuscript from 1561, in which Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand I apologizes to “small men from the sky, who speak without words” for waging war, and swears to be peaceful in the future.
  34. A map of the world, with lines marked on it. These converge in places like Giza and Salisbury Plain.
  35. A microwave gun, capable of causing headaches at low power - untraceable death by aneurysm at high power.
  36. Moon rocks. The bags are dated from 1948 to 1953.
  37. The nuclear “football.” Are the codes valid?
  38. A pan flute, old and worn. If played, it attracts small mammals and children, and causes hypnotic calm in adults.
  39. A partial children’s encyclopedia, dated 2037.
  40. A photograph of a world leader in an extremely compromising position.
  41. Potsherds. They appear perfectly ordinary, but there are faint scratches. Could they have recorded the voice of Jesus?
  42. Records of a CIA project to engineer HIV/AIDS and distribute it among the population.
  43. A rectangular-ish rock with an HDMI port embedded in it but seemingly attached to nothing (courtesy u/Delarhi).
  44. A recording from a gun camera, showing a saucer-shaped craft nearly colliding with a Russian fighter. For one frame, you can just see tiny bulbous heads inside a round glass window.
  45. Samples of an unknown metal. Where is it from?
  46. A street map of Area 51.
  47. A teddy bear. Is there some ghost or spirit attached to this object, or is it perfectly ordinary?
  48. A tungsten ring. If someone wears it, they can call forth intense heat and radiation, as from a nuclear blast.
  49. A wooden cup. It’s unadorned, but clearly very old.
  50. The Zapruder film - the complete Zapruder film.

50 Large Objects

These might be found in a crate, or filling a tractor-trailer:
  1. Amelia Earhart’s plane.
  2. An apparently empty crate. Objects inside age at 100 times the normal rate; putting your hand in will cause severe pain and, if not quickly removed, necrosis.
  3. The Ark of the Covenant.
  4. The Betz sphere.
  5. Canisters of an unknown chemical, designed to fit in the wings or cargo bay of an airliner.
  6. Cattle, drained of blood and with certain body parts removed with astonishing precision.
  7. A centurion’s spear. Is it about 2,000 years old, and is that dried blood on it?
  8. A child, or children. They could be clones, hostages, psychics, or super-soldiers.
  9. A clay sculpture, humanoid but oversized. It has some rough markings in Early Modern Czech, including the word “Prague.” What else do they say?
  10. A clone of a high-ranking political leader (courtesy of u/Retrolleum).
  11. A clutch of eggs, each as big as a man’s chest. What will hatch from them?
  12. A cold fusion reactor.
  13. A compact engine, which runs on gasoline or ethanol (maybe even water) at far greater efficiency than any car.
  14. A corpse, apparently of the current president. So who is that who’s giving a press conference right now?
  15. A dead cryptid - a chupacabra, man-ape, sea serpent, etc.
  16. A dog, in a spacious traveling crate with food and water. It’s well-mannered and seems quite intelligent. Extremely intelligent, actually.
  17. A door, in a frame. Where does it lead? Or perhaps... when?
  18. Experimental rifles, more powerful and accurate than anything on the market, or very quiet. Can you get ammo for it?
  19. An explosive of very unusual design. It’s encased in a very sturdy pressure vessel, as if meant to be deployed on the seabed.
  20. A ”gray” alien. Is it alive?
  21. A helicopter, partially disassembled. It’s fast, surprisingly quiet, and almost undetectable by radar.
  22. A hologram projector. Used properly, it can create a convincing illusion. What kind of illusion - lights in the sky, humanoid figures, UFOs?
  23. A horse, preserved in formaldehyde. It has an uncanny resemblance to the “demon horse” of the Denver airport.
  24. A humming gray cylinder. It has a few bumps and greebles, but no identifiable symbols. If wires are attached in the correct places, it produces several gigawatts of power, indefinitely.
  25. An iron coffin, bound with silver chains. There's a cross-shaped dagger piercing the center, securely bound in place.
  26. Jimmy Hoffa. Where had he been buried, and why did they need to move him?
  27. Lead-lined caskets, in a curiously small and elongated shape. What’s in them?
  28. A lizard-man, in hibernation.
  29. A locked wooden chest, banded with iron. A rhythmic thumping can be heard from within (courtesy of u/SamArea_I15).
  30. A man, in cryo-stasis. He’s tall, handsome, well-dressed, and comes with a box of effects including a Walther pistol in 7.65 Browning.
  31. A mermaid or merman, in a tank. Alive in a tank of water, or dead in a tank of formaldehyde?
  32. A metal box. It appears utterly empty and ordinary, but careful examination reveals that it’s slightly bigger on the inside.
  33. A miniature model of a city... with some significant changes (courtesy u/SethTheSloth1).
  34. The Nazi Bell).
  35. Parts from a crashed plane. One piece is labeled “Aurora.”
  36. A prototype Alcubierre drive. Does it work?
  37. A radio transmitter, of an unusual type. It’s labeled as part of HAARP, and causes suggestibility in anyone on the receiving end.
  38. A selection of organs and cuts of flesh. It looks like pork. It is not.
  39. A set of four lead boxes, three large enough for a person to climb into, the fourth small enough to fit in your hand. If opened, the fourth one contains a human eyeball, which furtively rolls this way and that as if taking in its surroundings (courtesy u/SamAre_I15).
  40. Several bolts of incredibly dense fabric, unlike anything presently known. What sort of tools might one need to work with such an incredibly sturdy material (courtesy u/SamAre_I15)?
  41. A silver cylinder, nearly man-sized. There’s a single button which opens and closes it. When closed, time stops inside. Is there anything in it, when found?
  42. A small nuclear warhead. Where did it come from?
  43. A smooth stone sphere that perpetually feels warm to the touch (courtesy u/Delarhi).
  44. A statue of an adult woman, made of salt. The artistry is impeccable, very lifelike.
  45. Steel from sunken German battleships, uncontaminated by radiation. Why did someone need such metal?
  46. Sumerian cuneiform tablets. If translated, they describe how the “nephilim” who taught them writing, mathematics, and engineering are returning to their home among the stars.
  47. A tank of metallic hydrogen. It’s metastable, but could still be explosive if agitated too much.
  48. A triptych of Jesus with dark skin (or Mohammed, or some other historical figure with no known living portraits); by all authentication methods, it appears to date to when he lived.
  49. Wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.
  50. A young woman in cryo-stasis. Bet you dollars to donuts she has psychic powers.
submitted by DJTilapia to d100 [link] [comments]


2020.09.04 07:23 Significant-Notice- On vaccine timing, from the comments

MR commentator Sure writes:
Current US excess all-cause mortality is running around 10K above trend line on a good week. For these purposes we need neither know nor care if this is do to Covid directly, fear of catching Covid, or the effects of lockdown policies (e.g. increased rates of suicide from business failure).
Suppose we vaccinated the entire population. We would have to have a fatality rate of 1/32,000 to match a single week of the excess deaths the CDC is reporting every week.
Phase III, according to Moderna, is going to last around 4 months. If we skipped phase III and just jumped to phase IV, we could look to avert around 170,000 deaths with perfect effectiveness. Let’s say that between it being a lousy vaccine and people giving up on social distancing early we only save half of those lives. That gives us around 85,000 lives saved.
This means that we are looking at a 1/4,000 as our rough fatality rate for vaccines to be safer than waiting.
To date, I know of no vaccine that passed phase II clinical trials that has ever had this sort of fatality rate. Further, the vaccine adverse event rate is typically an order of magnitude or more higher than the fatality rate so absent truly astonishingly high rates of clinically significant adverse events it is highly unlikely to hit something greater than 1/4000 but not see some evidence of it with just a few hundred patients under your belt in the early phase trials.
My pre-test probability that any vaccine fall into a mortality rate somewhere between 1/100 and 1/4000 absolute risk increase is pretty low. So low, that all the papers I have read name them specifically rather than tabulating (e.g. Merck V710) and even those tend not to have dramatic increases in mortality (e.g. V710 had increased rates of Staph infections, but no increase in mortality).
Maybe something will be different this time and that will happen. Maybe we will be stuck with an inferior vaccine (though my guess is if we declared all of the top candidates ready for phase IV we could get a wide variety of use). But from where my point of view as I understand things from the coroner, we would need some massively high pre-test priors to make a dent in the weekly excess mortality rates.
For places that have been able to limit the virus’s entry (e.g. the island nations), this is all moot. For places that had massive initial spikes (e.g. Italy), this may also be moot. But for the US which flatten the initial curve and has maintained a steady excess death rate, early adoption seems to have very good Bayesian odds
You could of course make a QALY argument about Covid fatalities against vaccine fatalities, but again you are trying to hit a pretty narrow window: dangerous enough to beat down 10,000 excess deaths a weak, not so dangerous that it would have obviously failed early studies.
Challenge studies may have their place (e.g. ruling out antibody dependent enhancement), but we need to be sure that the immune response works in real world conditions. And at this point I still have terrible data for what actually happens during the course of the infection.
Inaction has one of the highest price tags we have ever seen in modern medicine. I just do not see any evidence that my pre-test priors for a vaccine being that deadly should be remotely high enough to make the math on delay work out (particularly if we can avoid the most susceptible patient populations for VAEs). Certainly my priors for the ability of social action to stop infections is far worse (e.g. HIV, Lyme, Scabies) so I am increasingly convinced that long term it is either a vaccine or the hard road to herd immunity.
CatintheHat addds:
I agree with this rough analysis and the risk is even less because we, probably only have to vaccinate 25 % of the population to stop the epidemic completely which could be done relatively quickly.
For the opposite case, don’t forget this earlier in August post of Alex’s.
I would very gladly run further estimates of this kind. To be clear, I am not endorsing any particular conclusion, rather I think several hundred smart people should be working on this full time. My personal suspicion is that the decisive factor will be “the gains from possibly ending a global depression a few months earlier” vs. “the risk that with a lower quality vaccine we don’t end said depression more effectively than we otherwise might have.” And I hardly see anyone considering that trade-off at all.
There is also a closely related but conceptually separate question of how many vaccines to approve on an earlier basis, and also for how many should we be in a position to do so.
The post On vaccine timing, from the comments appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
submitted by Significant-Notice- to marginal [link] [comments]


2020.09.02 00:09 SelfPlugDave Homeless and nowhere to go what would you do?

Preface; This is some out of pocket, grade A ridiculous shit and frankly I don’t know what do or wether or not I will survive the coming weeks. There’s a boat-load of context needed so bear with me please. I’ll also post some screenshots with supplementary information to back up my claims.
 
I’m no longer safe in my city. Frankly this all happened on accident and I’ve exhausted every support system I have and all that I can do now is keep running. I live in a dangerous place. A high murder rate that keeps on rising and as a result of my own actions and some incredibly poor luck I’ve now got a target on my back that may never go away. So let’s start at what I !think! is the beginning.
 
I was dating this girl for a few years. It wasn’t bad, or at least I didn’t realize how bad it truly was until it all ended but that’s not really the point. Towards the end of our relationship- while trying to fix things- for a brief moment (a day) we considered a poly amorous relationship. We entertained a girl from our work who (although we didn’t realize she was lying) was at the time moving on from her ex. I didn’t believe the things she said about him which was a mistake on my part. Some of the things that were thrown out there included; diagnosed ASPD, murderer, stalker, psychopath, gang member, etc, etc. I now realize that this had been a setup the whole time and things are getting worse by the day. Long story short he kicked her out and we allowed to her to crash on our couch for a few days before she could get her stuff to her family’s house. (I actually never even saw her at our house but that’s beyond the point.) This may have been a ploy just to get our address but I doubt that, I think she just didn’t feel safe.
 
See with the advent of social media, stalking/tracking has become easier than ever and the individual in question has already admitted to stalking me at the time (when the aforementioned situation was ongoing.) my apartment complex where I was living started putting up signs about suspicious individuals skulking around at night. Despite all of this I was none the wiser to the position I was really in.
 
After my relationship ended (cheating, thanks ally) I started to look for some solace (vagina) and out of nowhere a very hood girl from high school started to hit me up. We hooked up once in the back of her Saturn and then she asked to move in with me. Again I wasn’t paying attention as I’m a little white boy who didn’t know shit about shit and didnt think much of it when she told me she was actually in ms-13 (she was actually part of a different gang but again, beyond the point it’s just another example of me being oblivious.) I was a little unsettled by how interested in me she was becoming so I cut contact relatively quickly and moved onto the next one.
 
Now as I was unknowingly being set up and stalked, I met my next actual girlfriend on accident. I invited a girl who I was facebook friends w over and unfortunately when I went to pick her up my car broke down in my driveway. When I asked her if she could get a ride she actually mentioned asking my stalker BY NAME and I still didn’t get the fucking picture. In the end she asked her friend (my next gf) for a ride to my place and that ended up being my downfall. Her BF at the time came and we all hung out at my place and smoked some, had a good time, and that was the night. Now you might be thinking “so hey when is your life going to be put at risk?” And I promise you we’re getting there. Unfortunately how elaborate the scheme was means I can’t really emphasize the gravity of the situation without all of this context.
 
New girl and me start hanging out every single day (from the first day we met, although she had a bf, we didn’t spend a day apart until we broke up.) I ask her if she’s gang affiliated, she says no. While hanging with her and her man at the time I see some odd symbolism on his wall. Tree of life, roses everywhere, and the interesting fact that he used to be roommates with my stalker (when they lived together with roughly 12 people a body was found in one of their roommates trunks, and that person went to jail and eventually killed themselves.) A few weeks later she broke up with her boyfriend for me out of nowhere and that lead to our relationship.
 
Fast forward a week or two and I help her move out of his house. I ask her new roommate if he’s gang affiliated, he says not anymore but the red symbolism in his house and wardrobe tells me a completely different story. Now low key behind my back she was fucking my stalker, her ex, and her roommate, but honestly right now that’s the last thing on my mind- it’s just another point to be made about the ridiculous level of manipulation I’ve been put under here.
 
Now long story short I met her “step-dad” who ran a trap where gang member would regularly hang out. I know for a fact he is in a gang and multiple times he and the people he was with made large references to gang activity that I let slip my mind, or rather willfully ignored. He made a comment in passing that the area she lived was “hot” with activity but I figured I’d be safe considering my (perceived) relationship w her and those around her and the fact I was keeping my nose clean and focusing on my relationship.
 
Now for the really scary part. I pull up to drop her off at her apartment at roughly 3am. She gets out, goes inside, and that’s that. I turn my head to back out and I see someone walking towards me. It’s someone I’ve seen hanging around before, flashing guns at us while we’re outside, but I’m schizotypal (non-psychosis, just flat affect and general non-social tendencies) and again I didn’t have much of a reaction other than “oh I’ve got these gang people around me I’m probably fine.” I couldn’t have been more wrong.
I look over my shoulder to back up and I see him pull out the same pistol he shook at us before and cock it while staring me dead in the eyes. Whoop fucking whoop. I hit the gas to back and hide in her building until they finally let me in. Keep in my I sent her about 40 messages BEGGING to let me in. BEGGING to save me. No response. Not until 30 minutes later do I hear anything back. One of my friends from out of town actually messaged her roommate and told him to go and unlock the door but he just blocked her.
 
Obviously this left me a little shaken. I didn’t feel safe there anymore but I still wanted to pursue the relationship so the next day I made a plan to drop her off from the side building. It worked one time. The next day I went to do the same thing and there’s a suv blocking the path. I’m in the car with my gf and she’s shaking and freaking the fuck out. We’re arguing, and a white sedan pulls up beside us. I feel my stomach drop because I now realize I’m blocked in from two sides. I hit reverse and whip back the way I came. As I’m leaving the neighborhood I peek out of my side window and the the person in the sedan is lining up a shot at me, this time w a underbarrel flashlight on his pistol. I’m gunning it 50 out of the neighborhood and pull up to the nearest gas station and break down. My gf says “I can’t do this anymore” and flags down a cop car to take her home. I’m too shaken to take her home so I hide in my car laying down. We don’t talk for 3 days until she says she doesn’t want too but for reasons unexplained we need to break up. I’m hurt but I’m more concerned about my safety and I fully understand.
 
I hide out for a few days in my new apartment. See unfortunately I moved to the hood in the center of the city and signed a lease only a week or two before all of this went down. Genuinely the most dangerous area in the city. What a genius right? Now I can’t leave the house without having a panic attack so I decide it’s either the bridge or the hospital for me. I go to turn to jump but at the last second I admit myself to the local psyche ward on the grounds I don’t want to fucking die.
 
I met a lot of people in there that were very nice. I also met a lot more gang members in there who I- thanks to my medication making me significantly more trusting, leads to me giving them my contact information. Yeah, great job Dave. Now I get out and I briefly take a look at my ex stalkers page. I’m confused to the point of panic. See half of my life secrets I told are now his page, layered relatively subtextually but obvious enough to get the message.
 
I’m suspicious. I message him on Snapchat playing a good game of “oh I need some advice” and he acts very buddy buddy. He admits to stalking me in the past and says “oh if I had a problem with you you’d know” but when I call out the cars following me daily with the same plate numbers he makes a thinly veiled threat along the lines of “if you don’t want to die don’t live in the hood.” Okay then. I’m on guard 24/7. I only leave the house when the coast is clear. All of a sudden I remember this guy has an obscure YouTube channel, and i go to check it out. Keep in mind he made a post about his birthday as well, and invited me to come. Telling me multiple times I’d be safe w him. But at the time I was suspicious, so I went and took a peek at his channel. This is where things start to get wild. I go back to when the whole situation started, early June, when he’d been messaging me on fake accounts. Keep in mind my ex is trying to get me to come to her apartment or her stepdads to give her some of her things I still had.
 
Now I find an interesting little podcast on his page where he talks about what I assumed would be the state of the world. I couldn’t have been more fucking wrong. In the video he talks about how he can figure people out by gauging their mannerism and watching them for a few weeks. Followed by this he says me and my exes name verbatim. This throws me into a state of shock. I pull-up more videos of his and find him literally detailing the situations I’ve found myself in, as well as him posting videos about the various murders he’s committed. He talks about how his friend hurt his feelings by simply eating his hot-pocket and he set him up with a girl who had hiv. (I recently found out he was talking about ms-13 girl, thank god I didn’t catch it.) In his next sociopath video he tells how he invited he friend over on a Friday and killed him “on accident” by poisoning him.
 
Now things start to go off. He invites me to his birthday party over Snapchat. My ex’s roommates toxic ex starts messaging me out of the blue and asks if I want to go to the party with her, weird right? I check the information on the post and it’s right down the street from my house, right when I’m supposed to be getting off work. Sounds fishy right? I know he runs with gang members and he’s admitted it on his page. After I say I might come I skip town and stay with my parents for a few days. He goes off grid on his channel but posts taunting messages on his Facebook. He’s also been inviting me to his house saying that I can come over whenever and I’ll be safe with him. My ex has been messaging me saying she can’t divulge but I need to run away and get out of the city and she’s sorry it’s all her fault.
At this point I’ve lost my job because I can’t go into the city anymore. I have nowhere to stay and I’ve been hopping from campground to campground sleeping in my car. I’m living an actual nightmare and I need to get out of the city but I just don’t have the capital or the connections. Ive put my family in danger just staying there. (One of the cars that was following me did a hit an run on my moms car. Same description same plate.)
&nsbp;
TLDR: Got caught up in some gang shit on accident. Been manipulated into a corner and have nowhere to go. I’m on edge, I have to leave or I might literally be killed. I’ve deleted all my social media, discovered fake account rings for gangs to hit unsuspecting individuals, been the target of attempted murder, received countless death threats.) I haven’t told anyone where I’m staying and I’ve disabled location services on everything since I know he’s hacked into at least one of my emails.) WhAt the fuck would you do? Can someone help me? I’m thinking of packing up what I can and being homeless for a while until I can find a new job. I have almost no savings, I’m stuck in a 300/m lease somewhere I can’t go. Help. Also when I mentioned to my ex’s stepdad I got pulled on twice he said “no wayyy” in his usual sarcastic tone which makes me think he either knew or is less than concerned.
 
Honestly at this point I don’t give a fuck. This dudes YouTube channel is .D.o.g.p.o.i.s.o.n. (Without the dots) if you want to see him calling me out watch lactose tolerant 3 and skip to 33:06 and watch for 2 minutes. If you want to see him detailing the sneaky shit he’s been doing watch tales of a sociopath. If you want to see him call me put subtextually watch his final boss videos, how to get out of being robbed, anything where he’s in the white collared shirt with his hair waved back. The boxer reading is literally just him threatening me. (He’s told me some of this, I figured out some on my own) I’m on borrowed time and I need help.
https://imgur.com/gallery/NN7djBa
submitted by SelfPlugDave to helpme [link] [comments]


2020.09.02 00:06 SelfPlugDave I’m now homeless and my life is at risk

Preface; This is some out of pocket, grade A ridiculous shit and frankly I don’t know what do or wether or not I will survive the coming weeks. There’s a boat-load of context needed so bear with me please. I’ll also post some screenshots with supplementary information to back up my claims.
 
I’m no longer safe in my city. Frankly this all happened on accident and I’ve exhausted every support system I have and all that I can do now is keep running. I live in a dangerous place. A high murder rate that keeps on rising and as a result of my own actions and some incredibly poor luck I’ve now got a target on my back that may never go away. So let’s start at what I !think! is the beginning.
 
I was dating this girl for a few years. It wasn’t bad, or at least I didn’t realize how bad it truly was until it all ended but that’s not really the point. Towards the end of our relationship- while trying to fix things- for a brief moment (a day) we considered a poly amorous relationship. We entertained a girl from our work who (although we didn’t realize she was lying) was at the time moving on from her ex. I didn’t believe the things she said about him which was a mistake on my part. Some of the things that were thrown out there included; diagnosed ASPD, murderer, stalker, psychopath, gang member, etc, etc. I now realize that this had been a setup the whole time and things are getting worse by the day. Long story short he kicked her out and we allowed to her to crash on our couch for a few days before she could get her stuff to her family’s house. (I actually never even saw her at our house but that’s beyond the point.) This may have been a ploy just to get our address but I doubt that, I think she just didn’t feel safe.
 
See with the advent of social media, stalking/tracking has become easier than ever and the individual in question has already admitted to stalking me at the time (when the aforementioned situation was ongoing.) my apartment complex where I was living started putting up signs about suspicious individuals skulking around at night. Despite all of this I was none the wiser to the position I was really in.
 
After my relationship ended (cheating, thanks ally) I started to look for some solace (vagina) and out of nowhere a very hood girl from high school started to hit me up. We hooked up once in the back of her Saturn and then she asked to move in with me. Again I wasn’t paying attention as I’m a little white boy who didn’t know shit about shit and didnt think much of it when she told me she was actually in ms-13 (she was actually part of a different gang but again, beyond the point it’s just another example of me being oblivious.) I was a little unsettled by how interested in me she was becoming so I cut contact relatively quickly and moved onto the next one.
 
Now as I was unknowingly being set up and stalked, I met my next actual girlfriend on accident. I invited a girl who I was facebook friends w over and unfortunately when I went to pick her up my car broke down in my driveway. When I asked her if she could get a ride she actually mentioned asking my stalker BY NAME and I still didn’t get the fucking picture. In the end she asked her friend (my next gf) for a ride to my place and that ended up being my downfall. Her BF at the time came and we all hung out at my place and smoked some, had a good time, and that was the night. Now you might be thinking “so hey when is your life going to be put at risk?” And I promise you we’re getting there. Unfortunately how elaborate the scheme was means I can’t really emphasize the gravity of the situation without all of this context.
 
New girl and me start hanging out every single day (from the first day we met, although she had a bf, we didn’t spend a day apart until we broke up.) I ask her if she’s gang affiliated, she says no. While hanging with her and her man at the time I see some odd symbolism on his wall. Tree of life, roses everywhere, and the interesting fact that he used to be roommates with my stalker (when they lived together with roughly 12 people a body was found in one of their roommates trunks, and that person went to jail and eventually killed themselves.) A few weeks later she broke up with her boyfriend for me out of nowhere and that lead to our relationship.
 
Fast forward a week or two and I help her move out of his house. I ask her new roommate if he’s gang affiliated, he says not anymore but the red symbolism in his house and wardrobe tells me a completely different story. Now low key behind my back she was fucking my stalker, her ex, and her roommate, but honestly right now that’s the last thing on my mind- it’s just another point to be made about the ridiculous level of manipulation I’ve been put under here.
 
Now long story short I met her “step-dad” who ran a trap where gang member would regularly hang out. I know for a fact he is in a gang and multiple times he and the people he was with made large references to gang activity that I let slip my mind, or rather willfully ignored. He made a comment in passing that the area she lived was “hot” with activity but I figured I’d be safe considering my (perceived) relationship w her and those around her and the fact I was keeping my nose clean and focusing on my relationship.
 
Now for the really scary part. I pull up to drop her off at her apartment at roughly 3am. She gets out, goes inside, and that’s that. I turn my head to back out and I see someone walking towards me. It’s someone I’ve seen hanging around before, flashing guns at us while we’re outside, but I’m schizotypal (non-psychosis, just flat affect and general non-social tendencies) and again I didn’t have much of a reaction other than “oh I’ve got these gang people around me I’m probably fine.” I couldn’t have been more wrong.
I look over my shoulder to back up and I see him pull out the same pistol he shook at us before and cock it while staring me dead in the eyes. Whoop fucking whoop. I hit the gas to back and hide in her building until they finally let me in. Keep in my I sent her about 40 messages BEGGING to let me in. BEGGING to save me. No response. Not until 30 minutes later do I hear anything back. One of my friends from out of town actually messaged her roommate and told him to go and unlock the door but he just blocked her.
 
Obviously this left me a little shaken. I didn’t feel safe there anymore but I still wanted to pursue the relationship so the next day I made a plan to drop her off from the side building. It worked one time. The next day I went to do the same thing and there’s a suv blocking the path. I’m in the car with my gf and she’s shaking and freaking the fuck out. We’re arguing, and a white sedan pulls up beside us. I feel my stomach drop because I now realize I’m blocked in from two sides. I hit reverse and whip back the way I came. As I’m leaving the neighborhood I peek out of my side window and the the person in the sedan is lining up a shot at me, this time w a underbarrel flashlight on his pistol. I’m gunning it 50 out of the neighborhood and pull up to the nearest gas station and break down. My gf says “I can’t do this anymore” and flags down a cop car to take her home. I’m too shaken to take her home so I hide in my car laying down. We don’t talk for 3 days until she says she doesn’t want too but for reasons unexplained we need to break up. I’m hurt but I’m more concerned about my safety and I fully understand.
 
I hide out for a few days in my new apartment. See unfortunately I moved to the hood in the center of the city and signed a lease only a week or two before all of this went down. Genuinely the most dangerous area in the city. What a genius right? Now I can’t leave the house without having a panic attack so I decide it’s either the bridge or the hospital for me. I go to turn to jump but at the last second I admit myself to the local psyche ward on the grounds I don’t want to fucking die.
 
I met a lot of people in there that were very nice. I also met a lot more gang members in there who I- thanks to my medication making me significantly more trusting, leads to me giving them my contact information. Yeah, great job Dave. Now I get out and I briefly take a look at my ex stalkers page. I’m confused to the point of panic. See half of my life secrets I told are now his page, layered relatively subtextually but obvious enough to get the message.
 
I’m suspicious. I message him on Snapchat playing a good game of “oh I need some advice” and he acts very buddy buddy. He admits to stalking me in the past and says “oh if I had a problem with you you’d know” but when I call out the cars following me daily with the same plate numbers he makes a thinly veiled threat along the lines of “if you don’t want to die don’t live in the hood.” Okay then. I’m on guard 24/7. I only leave the house when the coast is clear. All of a sudden I remember this guy has an obscure YouTube channel, and i go to check it out. Keep in mind he made a post about his birthday as well, and invited me to come. Telling me multiple times I’d be safe w him. But at the time I was suspicious, so I went and took a peek at his channel. This is where things start to get wild. I go back to when the whole situation started, early June, when he’d been messaging me on fake accounts. Keep in mind my ex is trying to get me to come to her apartment or her stepdads to give her some of her things I still had.
 
Now I find an interesting little podcast on his page where he talks about what I assumed would be the state of the world. I couldn’t have been more fucking wrong. In the video he talks about how he can figure people out by gauging their mannerism and watching them for a few weeks. Followed by this he says me and my exes name verbatim. This throws me into a state of shock. I pull-up more videos of his and find him literally detailing the situations I’ve found myself in, as well as him posting videos about the various murders he’s committed. He talks about how his friend hurt his feelings by simply eating his hot-pocket and he set him up with a girl who had hiv. (I recently found out he was talking about ms-13 girl, thank god I didn’t catch it.) In his next sociopath video he tells how he invited he friend over on a Friday and killed him “on accident” by poisoning him.
 
Now things start to go off. He invites me to his birthday party over Snapchat. My ex’s roommates toxic ex starts messaging me out of the blue and asks if I want to go to the party with her, weird right? I check the information on the post and it’s right down the street from my house, right when I’m supposed to be getting off work. Sounds fishy right? I know he runs with gang members and he’s admitted it on his page. After I say I might come I skip town and stay with my parents for a few days. He goes off grid on his channel but posts taunting messages on his Facebook. He’s also been inviting me to his house saying that I can come over whenever and I’ll be safe with him. My ex has been messaging me saying she can’t divulge but I need to run away and get out of the city and she’s sorry it’s all her fault.
At this point I’ve lost my job because I can’t go into the city anymore. I have nowhere to stay and I’ve been hopping from campground to campground sleeping in my car. I’m living an actual nightmare and I need to get out of the city but I just don’t have the capital or the connections. Ive put my family in danger just staying there. (One of the cars that was following me did a hit an run on my moms car. Same description same plate.)
&nsbp;
TLDR: Got caught up in some gang shit on accident. Been manipulated into a corner and have nowhere to go. I’m on edge, I have to leave or I might literally be killed. I’ve deleted all my social media, discovered fake account rings for gangs to hit unsuspecting individuals, been the target of attempted murder, received countless death threats.) I haven’t told anyone where I’m staying and I’ve disabled location services on everything since I know he’s hacked into at least one of my emails.) WhAt the fuck would you do? Can someone help me? I’m thinking of packing up what I can and being homeless for a while until I can find a new job. I have almost no savings, I’m stuck in a 300/m lease somewhere I can’t go. Help. Also when I mentioned to my ex’s stepdad I got pulled on twice he said “no wayyy” in his usual sarcastic tone which makes me think he either knew or is less than concerned.
 
Honestly at this point I don’t give a fuck. This dudes YouTube channel is .D.o.g.p.o.i.s.o.n. (Without the dots) if you want to see him calling me out watch lactose tolerant 3 and skip to 33:06 and watch for 2 minutes. If you want to see him detailing the sneaky shit he’s been doing watch tales of a sociopath. If you want to see him call me put subtextually watch his final boss videos, how to get out of being robbed, anything where he’s in the white collared shirt with his hair waved back. The boxer reading is literally just him threatening me. (He’s told me some of this, I figured out some on my own) I’m on borrowed time and I need help.
https://imgur.com/gallery/NN7djBa
submitted by SelfPlugDave to Advice [link] [comments]


2020.09.01 23:41 DepravedBlackguard Backed into a corner, nowhere to stay. What would you do?

Preface; This is some out of pocket, grade A ridiculous shit and frankly I don’t know what do or wether or not I will survive the coming weeks. There’s a boat-load of context needed so bear with me please. I’ll also post some screenshots with supplementary information to back up my claims.
 
I’m no longer safe in my city. Frankly this all happened on accident and I’ve exhausted every support system I have and all that I can do now is keep running. I live in a dangerous place. A high murder rate that keeps on rising and as a result of my own actions and some incredibly poor luck I’ve now got a target on my back that may never go away. So let’s start at what I !think! is the beginning.
 
I was dating this girl for a few years. It wasn’t bad, or at least I didn’t realize how bad it truly was until it all ended but that’s not really the point. Towards the end of our relationship- while trying to fix things- for a brief moment (a day) we considered a poly amorous relationship. We entertained a girl from our work who (although we didn’t realize she was lying) was at the time moving on from her ex. I didn’t believe the things she said about him which was a mistake on my part. Some of the things that were thrown out there included; diagnosed ASPD, murderer, stalker, psychopath, gang member, etc, etc. I now realize that this had been a setup the whole time and things are getting worse by the day. Long story short he kicked her out and we allowed to her to crash on our couch for a few days before she could get her stuff to her family’s house. (I actually never even saw her at our house but that’s beyond the point.) This may have been a ploy just to get our address but I doubt that, I think she just didn’t feel safe.
 
See with the advent of social media, stalking/tracking has become easier than ever and the individual in question has already admitted to stalking me at the time (when the aforementioned situation was ongoing.) my apartment complex where I was living started putting up signs about suspicious individuals skulking around at night. Despite all of this I was none the wiser to the position I was really in.
 
After my relationship ended (cheating, thanks ally) I started to look for some solace (vagina) and out of nowhere a very hood girl from high school started to hit me up. We hooked up once in the back of her Saturn and then she asked to move in with me. Again I wasn’t paying attention as I’m a little white boy who didn’t know shit about shit and didnt think much of it when she told me she was actually in ms-13 (she was actually part of a different gang but again, beyond the point it’s just another example of me being oblivious.) I was a little unsettled by how interested in me she was becoming so I cut contact relatively quickly and moved onto the next one.
 
Now as I was unknowingly being set up and stalked, I met my next actual girlfriend on accident. I invited a girl who I was facebook friends w over and unfortunately when I went to pick her up my car broke down in my driveway. When I asked her if she could get a ride she actually mentioned asking my stalker BY NAME and I still didn’t get the fucking picture. In the end she asked her friend (my next gf) for a ride to my place and that ended up being my downfall. Her BF at the time came and we all hung out at my place and smoked some, had a good time, and that was the night. Now you might be thinking “so hey when is your life going to be put at risk?” And I promise you we’re getting there. Unfortunately how elaborate the scheme was means I can’t really emphasize the gravity of the situation without all of this context.
 
New girl and me start hanging out every single day (from the first day we met, although she had a bf, we didn’t spend a day apart until we broke up.) I ask her if she’s gang affiliated, she says no. While hanging with her and her man at the time I see some odd symbolism on his wall. Tree of life, roses everywhere, and the interesting fact that he used to be roommates with my stalker (when they lived together with roughly 12 people a body was found in one of their roommates trunks, and that person went to jail and eventually killed themselves.) A few weeks later she broke up with her boyfriend for me out of nowhere and that lead to our relationship.
 
Fast forward a week or two and I help her move out of his house. I ask her new roommate if he’s gang affiliated, he says not anymore but the red symbolism in his house and wardrobe tells me a completely different story. Now low key behind my back she was fucking my stalker, her ex, and her roommate, but honestly right now that’s the last thing on my mind- it’s just another point to be made about the ridiculous level of manipulation I’ve been put under here.
 
Now long story short I met her “step-dad” who ran a trap where gang member would regularly hang out. I know for a fact he is in a gang and multiple times he and the people he was with made large references to gang activity that I let slip my mind, or rather willfully ignored. He made a comment in passing that the area she lived was “hot” with activity but I figured I’d be safe considering my (perceived) relationship w her and those around her and the fact I was keeping my nose clean and focusing on my relationship.
 
Now for the really scary part. I pull up to drop her off at her apartment at roughly 3am. She gets out, goes inside, and that’s that. I turn my head to back out and I see someone walking towards me. It’s someone I’ve seen hanging around before, flashing guns at us while we’re outside, but I’m schizotypal (non-psychosis, just flat affect and general non-social tendencies) and again I didn’t have much of a reaction other than “oh I’ve got these gang people around me I’m probably fine.” I couldn’t have been more wrong.
I look over my shoulder to back up and I see him pull out the same pistol he shook at us before and cock it while staring me dead in the eyes. Whoop fucking whoop. I hit the gas to back and hide in her building until they finally let me in. Keep in my I sent her about 40 messages BEGGING to let me in. BEGGING to save me. No response. Not until 30 minutes later do I hear anything back. One of my friends from out of town actually messaged her roommate and told him to go and unlock the door but he just blocked her.
 
Obviously this left me a little shaken. I didn’t feel safe there anymore but I still wanted to pursue the relationship so the next day I made a plan to drop her off from the side building. It worked one time. The next day I went to do the same thing and there’s a suv blocking the path. I’m in the car with my gf and she’s shaking and freaking the fuck out. We’re arguing, and a white sedan pulls up beside us. I feel my stomach drop because I now realize I’m blocked in from two sides. I hit reverse and whip back the way I came. As I’m leaving the neighborhood I peek out of my side window and the the person in the sedan is lining up a shot at me, this time w a underbarrel flashlight on his pistol. I’m gunning it 50 out of the neighborhood and pull up to the nearest gas station and break down. My gf says “I can’t do this anymore” and flags down a cop car to take her home. I’m too shaken to take her home so I hide in my car laying down. We don’t talk for 3 days until she says she doesn’t want too but for reasons unexplained we need to break up. I’m hurt but I’m more concerned about my safety and I fully understand.
 
I hide out for a few days in my new apartment. See unfortunately I moved to the hood in the center of the city and signed a lease only a week or two before all of this went down. Genuinely the most dangerous area in the city. What a genius right? Now I can’t leave the house without having a panic attack so I decide it’s either the bridge or the hospital for me. I go to turn to jump but at the last second I admit myself to the local psyche ward on the grounds I don’t want to fucking die.
 
I met a lot of people in there that were very nice. I also met a lot more gang members in there who I- thanks to my medication making me significantly more trusting, leads to me giving them my contact information. Yeah, great job Dave. Now I get out and I briefly take a look at my ex stalkers page. I’m confused to the point of panic. See half of my life secrets I told are now his page, layered relatively subtextually but obvious enough to get the message.
 
I’m suspicious. I message him on Snapchat playing a good game of “oh I need some advice” and he acts very buddy buddy. He admits to stalking me in the past and says “oh if I had a problem with you you’d know” but when I call out the cars following me daily with the same plate numbers he makes a thinly veiled threat along the lines of “if you don’t want to die don’t live in the hood.” Okay then. I’m on guard 24/7. I only leave the house when the coast is clear. All of a sudden I remember this guy has an obscure YouTube channel, and i go to check it out. Keep in mind he made a post about his birthday as well, and invited me to come. Telling me multiple times I’d be safe w him. But at the time I was suspicious, so I went and took a peek at his channel. This is where things start to get wild. I go back to when the whole situation started, early June, when he’d been messaging me on fake accounts. Keep in mind my ex is trying to get me to come to her apartment or her stepdads to give her some of her things I still had.
 
Now I find an interesting little podcast on his page where he talks about what I assumed would be the state of the world. I couldn’t have been more fucking wrong. In the video he talks about how he can figure people out by gauging their mannerism and watching them for a few weeks. Followed by this he says me and my exes name verbatim. This throws me into a state of shock. I pull-up more videos of his and find him literally detailing the situations I’ve found myself in, as well as him posting videos about the various murders he’s committed. He talks about how his friend hurt his feelings by simply eating his hot-pocket and he set him up with a girl who had hiv. (I recently found out he was talking about ms-13 girl, thank god I didn’t catch it.) In his next sociopath video he tells how he invited he friend over on a Friday and killed him “on accident” by poisoning him.
 
Now things start to go off. He invites me to his birthday party over Snapchat. My ex’s roommates toxic ex starts messaging me out of the blue and asks if I want to go to the party with her, weird right? I check the information on the post and it’s right down the street from my house, right when I’m supposed to be getting off work. Sounds fishy right? I know he runs with gang members and he’s admitted it on his page. After I say I might come I skip town and stay with my parents for a few days. He goes off grid on his channel but posts taunting messages on his Facebook. He’s also been inviting me to his house saying that I can come over whenever and I’ll be safe with him. My ex has been messaging me saying she can’t divulge but I need to run away and get out of the city and she’s sorry it’s all her fault.
At this point I’ve lost my job because I can’t go into the city anymore. I have nowhere to stay and I’ve been hopping from campground to campground sleeping in my car. I’m living an actual nightmare and I need to get out of the city but I just don’t have the capital or the connections. Ive put my family in danger just staying there. (One of the cars that was following me did a hit an run on my moms car. Same description same plate.)
&nsbp;
TLDR: Got caught up in some gang shit on accident. Been manipulated into a corner and have nowhere to go. I’m on edge, I have to leave or I might literally be killed. I’ve deleted all my social media, discovered fake account rings for gangs to hit unsuspecting individuals, been the target of attempted murder, received countless death threats.) I haven’t told anyone where I’m staying and I’ve disabled location services on everything since I know he’s hacked into at least one of my emails.) WhAt the fuck would you do? Can someone help me? I’m thinking of packing up what I can and being homeless for a while until I can find a new job. I have almost no savings, I’m stuck in a 300/m lease somewhere I can’t go. Help. Also when I mentioned to my ex’s stepdad I got pulled on twice he said “no wayyy” in his usual sarcastic tone which makes me think he either knew or is less than concerned.
 
Honestly at this point I don’t give a fuck. This dudes YouTube channel is .D.o.g.p.o.i.s.o.n. (Without the dots) if you want to see him calling me out watch lactose tolerant 3 and skip to 33:06 and watch for 2 minutes. If you want to see him detailing the sneaky shit he’s been doing watch tales of a sociopath. If you want to see him call me put subtextually watch his final boss videos, how to get out of being robbed, anything where he’s in the white collared shirt with his hair waved back. The boxer reading is literally just him threatening me. (He’s told me some of this, I figured out some on my own) I’m on borrowed time and I need help.
https://imgur.com/gallery/NN7djBa
submitted by DepravedBlackguard to povertyfinance [link] [comments]


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2020.08.28 19:21 IdolA28Augl Profe-ssional G-ay On-line Da-ting Lo-ndon

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2020.08.22 19:36 biggreekgeek Flatten the Curve. #50. PART 1. Jeffery Epstein & Espionage. Peter Thiel & Carbyne. Isreali Surveillance Tech & UAE. China Uyghurs Dentions & Erik Prince. Human Rights Watch; Similar Tech in China & Carbyne. Carbyne in the USA 911 SYSTEM. Michael Chertoff: Wrote Patriot Act + Carbyne Director.

Read Flatten the Curve Part 49. Link Here
Headlines. A line designed to get into your head. And it works, judging by the amount of circulation of conspiracy posts that help move those headlines that masquerade as revealing connections, but are merely propoganda headline clones being disseminated.
So lets get ahead of the lines before the lines get into your head.
Humans have two primary modes of communication; verbal and nonverbal. Nonverbal is body language. Body language on it's own can give you insight. Pairing verbal and nonverbal gives you the whole picture. Headlines are verbal. The content is nonverbal. That's how you get a glimpse of the bigger picture. But we can't look at each article as a completed part of the communicative process. That would be like only watching hand gestures while having a conversation with someone. The article isn't the subject, the event is the subject, and if the subject was person, then we have to find as many articles as we can to profile the body language and interpret the nonverbal communication.
Let me show you what I mean.
Offender Conspiracy Article Profilingcriminal article profiling, is an investigative strategy used by law enforcement agencies conspiracy theorists to identify likely suspects hidden motives and has been used by investigators conspiracy theorists to link cases subjects that may have been committed by the same perpetrator. Multiple crimes may be linked to a specific offender event and the profile may be used to predict the identified offender's conspiracy's future actions real intent. Criminal Profiling Here
And then.
Nonverbal communication (NVC) Multiple Article Profiling (MAP) • is the transmission of messages or signals through a nonverbal platform multiple article content searches (MACS) such as eye contact, facial expressions, gestures, posture, and the distance between two individuals, article source, differing information, dates, pov, and the connections between the sources. It includes the use of visual cues such as body language (content), distance (dates) and organizations/politicians, corporations, law enforcement, environmental issues, economics, and technology/AI. Original NVC Content Here
I have no doubt that the actors who have advanced copies of the script are using data algorithm aggregation that compiles the different content sources into a complete picture for them. We plebs aren't so lucky, we have to peruse and parse multiple sources to connect the dots. In essence, we are the plebs living in a technofuedal era before the invention of the modern Gutenberg technopress for the masses.
So let's throw on some work boots, grab a shovel, and start digging.
The Hacks and Muckrakers.
May 18, 2018: Vanity Fair • “We just got back from the Middle East,” he told a room full of Israelis, upon arriving in Jerusalem from Saudi Arabia last May. Source Here
May 22 2017: Slate • The President Just Told a Room of Israelis That He “Just Got Back From the Middle East” Source Here
Trump. The man's Presidency has come at a time where it's all starting to fall apart. And I can't help but think of Trump as Julius Caesar part two. A populist leader who threatened the establishment and upended the republic, paving the way for Augustus Caesar and the soft introduction of Roman empire, as it let the pretenses of being a Republic fade away. If you aren't familiar with that time of history, I would highly recommend doing so. There is more to my comparison that I'm not elaborating on, except to say, if you dig you will find someone else who loves Roman history, looks like a clone of Augustus, and we watched as he made rounds while articles suggested that he had aspirations of becoming President. Do I think that it'll happen soon? Probably not. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. And we're only at the start of the Hollow Men by T S *Eliot *.
December 14, 2016: Techcrunch • President-elect Donald Trump met with some of the most prominent executives from the tech industry today at Trump Tower, with investor Peter Thiel and Vice President-elect Mike Pence at his side. Trump opened the meeting with CEOs from Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and others by thanking Thiel for his support. “I want to add that I am here to help you folks do well. And you’re doing well right now and I’m very honored by the bounce. They’re all talking about the bounce. So right now everybody in this room has to like me, at least a little bit,” Trump said, perhaps in reference to the fact that he received little support from Silicon Valley during his campaign. “We’re going to try to have that bounce continue. Perhaps even more importantly, we want you to keep going with the incredible innovation. There’s nobody like you in the world. There’s nobody like the people in this room and anything we can do to help this go along, we’re going to be there for you. You’ll call my people, you’ll call me, it doesn’t make any difference. We have no formal chain of command around here,” Trump said.
Interesting, wouldn't you say? No formal chain of command around here. They thanked Peter Thiel for his support. Ok. Maybe nothing, maybe something. Ok. It's something.
August, 2018 Articles: www.theverge.com • Trump claims Google is suppressing positive news about him.
www.cnbc.com • Trump: Facebook, Twitter, Google 'have to be careful'.
Stop the presses, because were getting squeezed and pasteurized. The tech leaders meet with Trump. They thank Thiel, suggesting that he organized the assembly. And then Trump starts bashing the Technocrats that he's meeting with? Nothing but Bread and Circus. Plain and simple.
June 27, 2017: Tech Transparency Project • No other company in America was as intimately tied to the Obama Administration and the Democratic Party during Barack Obama’s eight years in office than Google. Today the company is doing everything it can to restore the same cozy White House access it enjoyed under President Obama. Eric Schmidt has attended at least two meetings with Trump and attended a third White House meeting with tech leaders last Monday. At the same time, The Groundwork – a secretive Schmidt-funded startup that ran the Clinton campaign’s data operation – recently relaunched itself as a technology platform for liberal organizations working to fight the Trump Administration’s agenda. By all appearances, Google appears to be working overtime to both ingratiate itself with the Trump Administration while simultaneously cashing in on the “resistance” to Trump’s agenda. Source Here
By all appearances? He's working both sides? Trying to cash in? Really? Seriously? Let's break that down.
** 2020 • Eric Schmidt/Net worth: 15.3 billion USD. Call me crazy, but I don’t think a guy with 15 billion dollars is worried about "cashing in**". As I've stated numerous times, this is no longer about money, it's about control. That's imperative to understand. You don't worry about the money hidden under the mattress when you have a locked vault full of cash. Money is only an incentive for those who either don't have it or need more of it. Neither of those categories apply to Eric Schmidt.
So lets examine how badly the Tech guys and Trump aren't getting along, shall we?
March 2, 2016: Defense News • Google Executive Schmidt To Head New DoD Advisory Board. Source Here
Ah. He's working for the Pentagon to make it better. And this happens almost a full year before meeting with Trump. This doesn't look like someone playing both sides, this looks like a team player in a game that only has one team. This is political wrestling that would make Vince McMahon envious. If you want to dive deeper into how Eric Schmidt funded the non profit that started fake news, here's a previous Flatten the Curve post. Part #19
Attendees included Eric Schmidt and Larry Page of Google, Tim Cook of Apple, Satya Nadella and Brad Smith of Microsoft, Jeff Bezos of Amazon (who expressed his excitement that Trump’s administration could be “the innovations administration“), Safra Catz of Oracle, Chuck Robbins of Cisco and Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook. Thiel’s business partner, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, attended as well.
Those are big names and big companies. But they all hate Trump, right?
Thiel has been instrumental in shaping Trump’s approach to technology, helping assemble a list of candidates for technical roles in the upcoming administration and reportedly bringing David Sacks and other long-time associates to the transition team. During his speech at the Republican National Convention, Thiel talked about spreading the prosperity of Silicon Valley to other regions across the country and cited space travel as one of America’s great technological achievements. “Instead of going to Mars, we have invaded the Middle East,” Thiel said.
I should point out that Thiel and Musk started PayPal together.
November 24, 2019: Business Insider • What do the founders of YouTube, Yelp, Tesla, and LinkedIn have in common? Apart from leading massively disruptive technology companies, their founders all share a common resume line item: employment at PayPal. Known for their entrepreneurial mindset and anti-establishment attitude, this elite group is known as the "PayPal Mafia," and they all put in time during the payment platform's early days some 20 years ago. Source Here
Oh. And Pete's instrumental to creating Facebook. Thiel became Facebook's first outside investor when he acquired a 10.2% stake for $500,000 in August 2004. He sold the majority of his shares in Facebook for over $1 billion in 2012, but remains on the board of directors. And he funded Hulk Hogan's lawsuit to take down Gawker. Told ya, it's just political wrestling to entertain us.
However, one of the biggest proponents of travel to Mars, Elon Musk, has also been one of Trump’s most outspoken critics. Musk donated to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and frequently denounced Trump, saying that the former reality television star “doesn’t seem to have the sort of character that reflects well on the United States.” But since the election, Musk appears to have warmed up to Trump. He was a late addition to the invite list for today’s meeting. The transition team also announced this morning that Musk will join Trump’s strategic and policy forum, a group of business leaders that will serve as an advisory committee to the president-elect. Source Here
Musk and Trump, a marriage made in heaven. It's destiny, I tell you, destiny. Or an act (don't worry Elon, I haven't forgotten about you) designed to make us believe that somebody up there is fighting for us down here.
Yet the inclusion of the quote about Mars and War in the Middle East stands out, wouldn't you agree? And we have environmental collapse triggers happening. Riots happening. Why those riots are also happening in Beruit, aren't they? And Isreal and Saudi Arabia don't get along with Lebanon, or the Hezbollah. And President Trump went from Suadi Arabia to Isreal, didn’t he? And wasn't there an explosion there recently? Must all be a coincidence. Let's get back to Pete the magical Thiel and see what else Hulk Hogan's buddy is mixed up in.
He co-founded Valar Ventures in 2010, co-founded Mithril Capital, serving as investment committee chair, in 2012, and served as a partner at Y Combinator from 2015 to 2017. Through the Thiel Foundation, Thiel governs the grant-making bodies Breakout Labs and Thiel Fellowship, and funds nonprofit research into artificial intelligence, life extension and seasteading. A co-founder of The Stanford Review, he is a conservative libertarian who is critical of high government spending, high debt levels, and foreign wars. He has donated to numerous political figures. At the 2009 Singularity Summit, he said his greatest concern is the technological singularity not arriving soon enough. Source Here
Singularity. Not. Arriving. Soon. Enough. Call me paranoid and pass the tin foil hat, but what Matrix code is needed to decipher his words intent? Not soon enough for what? Better Netflix selection? The Alien invasion? Godzilla awakening because of Fukushima? Are the Decepticons already here? Or have they been downplaying the ELE that's approaching? I'll take ELE for a thousand, Alex.
So he's into AI (he backed Deepmind and OpenAI) and life extension. He went to Stanford. He's also going to have his body cryonically preserved. And his Palantir surveillance is, well, nottofreakyououtoranything, everywhere. Palantir's first backer was the Central Intelligence Agency's venture capital arm In-Q-Tel. Then Palantir became Big Brother. Literally. The Palantir clients include the CIA, DHS, NSA, FBI, CDC, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, Special Operations Command, West Point, the Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization and Allies, the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. And Palantir is also being used by Banks, Hedge Funds, Financial Services, and other corporate clients.
Big Brother wants to be Palantir went it grows up.
Now, are you wondering why I started with Trump, Saudi Arabia and Isreal? Are you curious about how it goes from ex CEO of Google Eric Schmidt "playing" both sides of the fence to Palantir and Peter Thiel? Just sit right back and hold tight, cause I'm about to take you on a one way trip to a Brave New Normal World that's called 1984.
Warning. What you're about to read will make you forever question every officially sanctioned narrative. Trust me. Still game? Are you sure? Last chance. You're about to leave neverneverland and you can't go back. Alright. Let's go.
It's All Hidden In Plain Sight.
Let's talk about Epstein. Yep. Him. I've been strangely quiet about Jeffery haven't I? Nothing written about the Captain Pedo and his Amazing friends didn't mean there was nothing there, it just meant that I didn't find anything that indicated something deeper than a pedophile blackmail ring. And sex and political blackmail is as old as time itself. There's a reason they say the world's two oldest professions are prostitutes and politicians. Yet it turns out the professional pimp and the abducted teens may be playing a bigger role than we thought.
July 31, 2019: NY TIMES • Mr. Epstein’s vision reflected his longstanding fascination with what has become known as transhumanism: the science of improving the human population through technologies like genetic engineering and artificial intelligence. Critics have likened transhumanism to a modern-day version of eugenics, the discredited field of improving the human race through controlled breeding. Mr. Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico, which he confided to scientists and others he hoped to use as the site for seeding the human race with his DNA.
Welcome to the Island of Dr. Moreau. We're it's the monsters trying to make humans. Do you still think this was all about blackmail, cause it wasn't. Stop thinking in normal terms, because normal is dead, long live the New Normal.
At one session at Harvard, Mr. Epstein criticized efforts to reduce starvation and provide health care to the poor because doing so increased the risk of overpopulation, said Mr. Pinker, who was there. Mr. Pinker said he had rebutted the argument, citing research showing that high rates of infant mortality simply caused people to have more children.
Epstein criticized efforts to reduce starvation and provide health care. Hmmmm. My memory is foggy, but isn't there someone in Africa trying to provide health care and reduce starvation? Who could that be? Wasn't he into computers and had pictures taken on Epstein’s private jet? Wasn't it Bill Gates? Now why would Billy be hanging around someone who would vocally espouse an ideology that is completely antithetical to his stated humanitarian goals?
Also at the Indian Summer dinner, according to an account on the website of Mr. Brockman’s Edge Foundation, were the Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page and Jeff Bezos, who was accompanied by his mother.
Then there was Mr. Epstein’s interest in eugenics. Once, at a dinner at Mr. Epstein’s mansion on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, Mr. Lanier said he talked to a scientist who told him that Mr. Epstein’s goal was to have 20 women at a time impregnated at his 33,000-square-foot Zorro Ranch in a tiny town outside Santa Fe. Mr. Mr. Lanier, said he had the impression that Mr. Epstein was using the dinner parties to screen candidates to bear Mr. Epstein’s children. Mr. Epstein did not hide his interest in tinkering with genes — and in perpetuating his own DNA. Interviews with more than a dozen of his acquaintances, as well as public documents, show that he used the same tactics to insinuate himself into an elite scientific community, thus allowing him to pursue his interests in eugenics and other fringe fields like cryonics. One adherent of transhumanism said that he and Mr. Epstein discussed the financier’s interest in cryonics, an unproven science in which people’s bodies are frozen to be brought back to life in the future. Mr. Epstein told this person that he wanted his head and penis to be frozen.
More Epstein and Eugenics. Source Here
Now call me crazy, but there's some strangeness happening. Cryonics, don't die, just Let It Go and get Frozen. First Peter Thiel, now Epstein. Let's hope the AI Singularity arrives in time, right?
Now I wouldn't have even bothered with their shared interest of joining the Walt Disney Cryonics Club, if there wasn't more in play, and there's more in play.
August 9, 2019: TRT World • The billionaire shared the same personal network that included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, infamous Blackwater founder Erik Prince, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton.
According to investigative journalist Vicky Ward, quoting a meeting with Trump’s transition team, Acosta told a White House official: “I was told Epstein ‘belonged to intelligence’ and to leave it alone.”
That's a bit of an exclusive club, kinda like being in the Mouseketeer CIA club. But, hey, nothing to see here, is there? But just in case, let's look into the company that Epstein worked with, Carbyne.
This single company, Carbyne, brought together a who’s who of power brokers and intelligence figures from multiple regions including Russia, China and the Trump administration itself, with Epstein at its heart. Officially, Carbyne provided high-tech solutions for emergency centres. In reality, it existed in a grey area giving it unprecedented access to private information, with significant potential for privacy abuse. Carbyne provides a service for police emergency centres, providing complete access to the caller’s camera and GPS, providing the dispatcher with a live video feed.
Ok. So Epstein and Thiel both are into AI, Surveillance, and Cryonics. President Trump was in Isreal and Saudi Arabia in May 2017. And who ended up in Isreal just afterwards?
PayPal Founder in Israel: Too Much Copying and Not Enough Innovation in High-tech
June 15, 2017: Haaretz • Billionaire Peter Thiel visits Israel – and gives out tips on how to build a successful startup. Source Here
Hey, one month after Trump visited the Middle East, Peter Thiel decides to take middle eastern vacation to give out business tips. And then Thiel must've reciprocated and invited the Fresh Prince of Saudi Arabia to get the all inclusive Palantir surveillance pitch. Smile for the camera everyone, cause the world's a stage and we're filming a world wide Truman Show.
April 7, 2018: Gulf News • Google, Thiel feature in Saudi Prince’s Silicon Valley tour. The Saudi delegation visited several Silicon Valley corporate campuses, including Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. In addition to Facebook, where Thiel sits on the board, the Saudi delegation visited data-analysis start-up Palantir Technologies Inc and a trio of investment firms created by Thiel: Clarium Capital, Valar Ventures and Founders Fund. Thiel is chairman and co-founder of Palantir. Source Here
March 17, 2020: Forbes • These responders are now using a tool built in part by former members of Israel’s military intelligence—Elichai being one—that’s backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who is now the company’s chairman, and a small, passive investment from deceased multimillionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. SourceHere
Ok look. I get it. Rich people make investments, those investments are bound to end up in the same company. But these companies aren't exactly run of the mill home security systems, are they? Nope. This is the kind of surveillance systems that the KGB or the Stasi could only dream of. And when you wish upon a star dreams come true. And Peter Thiel must be wishing upon a star.
Ok. Strap in, buckle up, and try to keep up, or you're gonna get left in the dust. Cause it's boom or bust from here on out, and we're gonna add it up like the count.
So Elichai owns Carbyne. Peter Thiel invested in Carbyne. And Carbyne is in the USA linked to the 911 system, and it's being used to fight the pandemic.
Forbes (Link Above) • Its founder thinks Carbyne’s tech could make the lives of 911 dispatch and healthcare professionals much less chaotic in the Covid-19 crisis. Carbyne relies on callers submitting themselves to self-surveillance via their own mobile phone. Once a caller uses their Android or iPhone to call 911 (85% of emergency calls now come from mobile devices), they receive a text message that asks for permission to get their precise location and access video from their smartphone camera.
Step right up and give your permission to be saved. Big Brother is looking out for you.
So Elichai used to work for the 8200. Cool name, right. I'm not sure about you, but that sounds pretty dystopian. And I've gotta say, that all of Technocrats that are promising us an AI utopia, sure seem to be getting ahead of the curve by building doomsday bunkers for a dystopia. And here we sit wasting our time Doomscrolling.
So what else has sprung up from the 8200? Have you ever heard about the NSO Group?
November 1, 2019 - WhatsApp identified an Israeli company, NSO Group, as having developed the spyware called Pegasus, which it held responsible for the breach. This disclosure was part of a lawsuit WhatsApp has filed against the NSO Group in a US federal court, saying the company was actively involved in hacking users of the encrypted chat service. As per the WhatsApp complaint the “target users included attorneys, journalists, human rights activists, political dissidents, diplomats, and other senior foreign government officials.” NSO’s spyware Pegasus has been reportedly used to target journalists in Mexico investigating drug cartels, rights group Amnesty International, human rights activists in UAE, activists in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. According to Israeli news reports, Saudi Arabia paid $55 million for its use. The contract was later frozen over the scandal alleging NSO software's role in Saudi Arabia tracking slain journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the months before he was murdered in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey. In India, 17 people, who are known to be targeted include activists and human rights lawyers. Source Here
Whoops. Do you remember Jamal Khashoggi? He was trying to expose Human Rights abuses against Saudi Arabia. And then Suadi Arabia decided to murder him, and confirm that they were abusing human rights. Jamal paid the ultimate price to prove his point. But who is selling the hacking tools? At this point they all seem to be springing up from members of the 8200, and the companies they started.
TRT - Link Previously Provided • DarkMatter, a UAE surveillance and intelligence group employing former NSA operatives was built on the back of a larger initiative to modernise Emirati intelligence and military operations. The group took part in at the Arab Future Cities Conference in November 2015, where it presented a vision of smarter, tech-driven cities, which caught the eye of Chinese officials. Smarter cities meant Big Brother-esque widespread surveillance installed throughout the UAE. Only two years later in April 25 2017, DarkMatter signed a Global Strategic Memorandum of Understanding with Huawei, a leading Chinese company, for the same ‘Big Data’ systems and ‘Smart City’ solutions. The middle man? None other than Erik Prince, who had gone from working for the Emiratis, to working for a Chinese billionaire. In suspect timing, the Memorandum of Understanding also took place right before China scaled up its total surveillance and crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang, China.
February 2, 2019: Reuters • Xinjiang is a major part of China's Belt and Road infrastructure network but the region has faced attacks blamed on members of the Muslim ethnic Uighur minority. Beijing has responded with a security clampdown condemned by rights groups and Western governments. Frontier Services Group (FSG), a Hong Kong-listed company founded by Prince, said in a Chinese-language statement posted on its website on Jan. 22 that it had signed a deal to build a training centre in southern Xinjiang. Prince is deputy chairman, a minority shareholder and a board member of FSG, a security, logistics and insurance provider. Source Here

Watch this video.

Chinese authorities are using a 911 mobile app to carry out illegal mass surveillance and arbitrary detention of Muslims in China’s western Xinjiang region. Source Here
Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Aren't we condemning China for the camps, and yet the West is helping to build those camps? Must be a big mistake. We didn’t know what was happening. And Erik Prince swears he didn't know. Honestly. He's not lying. Cross my heart and hope to die. Pinky swear.
Recap.
8200 leads to NSO and Carbyne. DarkMatter is in the UAE with NSA employees. The NSO hack was used to capture Khashoggi. Peter Thiel invested in Facebook, Facebook owns WhatsApp. Peter Thiel invested in Carbyne. Eric Prince works for and founded FSG, which built the Muslim reduction school. China is using similar tech to target Muslims and send them back to school. Carbyne 911 surveillance tech accesses your phone camera after you click on the link to give permission. So. Peter Thiel funds Carbyne. Eric Prince is working for the UAE developing security and the UAE ends up with Dark Matter, and then his company (FSG) is sold to China, and they build re-education centers, which uses technology like Carbyne, and that technology is being used in the USA.
Got it? Good. Because I'm seriously having a hard time keeping up with the behind the scene footage of this LARP.
Link Previously Provided • 1,400 people worldwide, including Indian lawyers, rights activists and journalist, were targets of an online spying campaign that used highly sophisticated spyware developed by an Israeli firm via WhatsApp. WhatsApp is at the centre of a global storm over privacy after it was revealed that at least 17 Indians and about 1,400 people worldwide had their phones breached through the social media app. Their privacy was compromised by surveillance technology so invasive that could read and transmit the entire contents of a phone as well as operate its camera.
WhatsApp, Doc, I think I need an appointment because I'm suffering from Mass Psychogenic Illness from too much Doomscrolling.
Do you want to get deeper? I mean really deep? Yes? Ok. Let's jump into the deep.
October 18, 2019: fortune.com - How a WhatsApp Tax Launched Massive Anti-Government Protests in Lebanon.
What a crazy New Normal World Order we live in. What are the odds that we have a WhatsApp hack tax protest and we also have a WhatsApp hack that uses your phone camera, while also using similar tech in the USA and China. That's inconceivable! That's incredible! Someone call the press and let them know about this! Uhm. Wait. Better not. You might get Khashoggid.
So Eric Prince is involved. Peter Thiel is involved. WhatsApp is owned by Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg owns Facebook, and Peter Thiel helped Facebook grow. And then there was this.
March 28, 2018: Daily Mail • Employee of Peter Thiel's company Palantir helped Cambridge Analytica harvest the data of millions of the Facebook users. Alfredas Chmieliauskas is said to have suggested to Cambridge Analytica that it create a personality quiz smartphone app to get access to networks of Facebook users. The Times report also claims that Sophie Schmidt - the daughter former Google executive Eric Schmidt - had urged Cambridge Analytica to work with Palantir. Source Here
At this point, I think I'm going to need to buy a whole lot of tacks and string and make pciture maps on my walls. If we're all living in a Truman Surveillance Show, might as well play the part of the New Normal crazy conspiracy theorist, right?
January 17, 2017: The Intercept According to New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, in December Prince attended the annual “Villains and Heroes” costume ball hosted by Mercer. Dowd wrote that Palantir founder Peter Thiel showed her “a picture on his phone of him posing with Erik Prince, who founded the private military company Blackwater, and Mr. Trump — who had no costume — but joke[d] that it was ‘N.S.F.I.’ (Not Safe for the Internet).”
No. Sanity. Fracking. Involved. Is more like it. This insanity can't pass for sanity, can it? And yet they label us crazy when we start to find the big picture, even if we aren't entirely sure what the big picture means.
The Intercpt Continued: In July, Prince told Trump’s senior adviser and white supremacist Steve Bannon, at the time head of Breitbart News, that the Trump administration should recreate a version of the Phoenix Program, the CIA assassination ring that operated during the Vietnam War, to fight ISIS. Such a program, Prince said, could kill or capture “the funders of Islamic terror and that would even be the wealthy radical Islamist billionaires funding it from the Middle East, and any of the other illicit activities they’re in.” Prince also said that Trump would be the best force to confront “Islamic fascism.” “As for the world looking to the United States for leadership, unfortunately, I think they’re going to have to wait till January and hope Mr. Trump is elected because, clearly, our generals don’t have a stomach for a fight,” Prince said. “Our president doesn’t have a stomach for a fight and the terrorists, the fascists, are winning.” Source Here
Sounds good, right? Kill people who kill people and maybe someday we won't have people getting killed. Killer idea! HEWDSHAWT! Grab your BFG and let's go BGH. It's a date!
But then why are these cell phone surveillance hacks companies being constantly linked with their names, and those hacks are being used to target journalists and human rights activists?
It's a small New Normal World Order after all. And it's getting smaller everyday. No worries though, Keep Calm and Carry On, We're All In This Together, and You're Either With Us Or Against Us. It's all good. That kind of thing could never happen here.
July 27, 2019: NARATIV • Michael Chertoff, who ran Homeland Security under George Bush, serves on Carbyne’s advisory board. Chertoff wrote the Patriot Act, which authorized digital surveillance of Americans. Source Here
Uh. Is nobody paying attention? Are the wolves guarding the sheep?
March 16, 2003: Washington Post • It didn't help that as the World Trade Center burned on Sept. 11, 2001, the news interrupted a Carlyle business conference at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel here attended by a brother of Osama bin Laden. Former president Bush, a fellow investor, had been with him at the conference the previous day. Source Here
Need more proof?
September 16, 2015: Carlyle Group • The Carlyle Group and The Chertoff Group Acquire Majority Stake in Coalfire Systems. Founded in 2001 and based in Louisville, Colo., Coalfire is a global cybersecurity and technology services provider specializing in cyber risk advisory, compliance assessments, technical testing and software services for private enterprises and government organizations. With its technical depth and breadth of IT services, Coalfire serves clients in sectors including technology, retail, payments, healthcare, financial services, education, local and state government, and utilities. Michael Chertoff, former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary and the co-founder and executive chairman of The Chertoff Group, said, “Cyber threats are an existential risk to companies and individuals around the globe. We and Carlyle are excited to partner with Coalfire, an innovative technology-enabled services company helping clients to address cyber risks.” Source Here
It's a good thing that Coalfire is on the case, could you imagine how bad the hacks would be otherwise? Have a look. Flatten the Curve. Part 43. [Link Here](https://np.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/i2g3i8/flatten_the_curve_part_43_unrestricted_warfare/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share]
That's a pretty long trail that I've written. Guess what? The trail goes longer. So long that this will have to be continued in a part 2 later tonight. Until then; Heads Up and Eyes Open.Take Care. Be Safe. Stay Aware and Be Prepared. Talk soon.
submitted by biggreekgeek to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.08.21 03:16 Royskid How to tell my boyfriend I have syphilis

This is my first reddit post and I would really appreciate some helpful advice...
To give some background I(25f) am a serial monogamist, before I met my current boyfriend(25m) I was single / celibate for a year. Before then I was on again with my ex of 5 years for the last time. We broke up because he was cheating on me, between me healing and finding a guy that I like and gets me it was a year before I met my current boyfriend. We’ve been dating a while and after some time and quarantining decided to have sex for the first time. When we had sex for the first time it hurt, it hurt in a it’s been a while since I’ve had sex but also in a slightly stinging way. I attributed it to me not being wet enough as we were a little overzealous and the next few rounds didn’t hurt after that. What raised suspicion for me was 2 full days later I was still almost as sore as when we first finished. I peed and felt a stinging sensation around my vagina opening (sorry I don’t know the proper word, not the hole that pee comes from). I got a mirror and looked down there and it looked really red. A little more late back ground, I haven’t had health insurance for a while and I’m not very educated on Medicare/medicade, I now have a job where I have good health insurance and so I went and got tested. I’m now awaiting the results but based on symptoms and pictures I’m pretty sure it’s syphilis. My rapid hiv came back negative thank goodness. I know it was irresponsible to not get tested before engaging with a new partner but I honestly thought I was clean as naïve as that sounds. I had absolutely no symptoms and I already have sensitive skin so some slight discomfort isnt abnormal for me. I’m so afraid he’ll think I’m lying and that I’ve been sleeping with guys the whole time that we’ve been talking.
Honestly just besides the fact that I may have made another person sick with my foolishness, I genuinely really really really like this guy. It has been a long time since I’ve met someone who gets my weird and has the same values as I do and genuinely likes me for me. But he’s not a stupid man, and I really don’t know how he’ll react if I have syphilis. I know he likes me a lot but I can’t say if the tables were turned how I’d react. If he breaks up with me he will really be the one that got away...
So what I needed advice on now that Ive explained everything Is how do I tell him if it turns out I have syphilis ? Do I tell him face-to-face? He normally comes to my house, should I go over to his house so he doesn’t feel like he wasted gas for it? Should I lead with an apology? He gets really excited to see me, should I tell him upfront that it’s bad news so he can prepare himself? I think you get it.... also for any men, how do you think he will react? Would you break up with a girl you really really liked if she told you she really didn’t know? Would you need time but be able to come around? Do you think you’ll be able to trust me again? I get the results on Monday at the earliest and Wednesday at the latest. Also syphilis is curable for anyone who doesn’t know and I will offer pay for any and all of his treatment if I’m diagnosed.
submitted by Royskid to relationship_advice [link] [comments]


2020.08.09 01:49 JacobInAustin In re End Childhood Marriage Act, 2020 DX 1

Supreme Court for the State of Dixie

In re End Childhood Marriage Act

Williams v. State of Dixie

No. 20-04 Decided on April 13th, 2020

Justice dewey-cheatem delivered the opinion of the Court.
I. Background
¶ 1. On grounds of purported infringement on the free exercise of religion and the fundamental right to marriage, Petitioner challenges the constitutionality of the operative section of the End Childhood Marriage Act, B.093 (hereinafter “the Act”), passed by the Dixie Assembly on April 14th, 2019, and signed into law by Governor blockdenied on April 15th, 2019.
¶ 1A. The challenged section provides as follows: (a) No child under the age of eighteen has the right to get married in the state of Dixie (i) Any Civil or Religious person found guilty of breaking this law shall be found guilty of a felony crime against a child (1) Position shall be removed from them (2) No less than 5 years in prison for neglect of the welfare of a child (b) There shall be no religious exemptions to this law
¶ 2. Today we uphold the law in its entirety with the exception of section (a)(i)(1), which would require the removal of religious personnel from their offices.
INTERPRETING THE MEANING OF THE STATUTE
II. Interpreting The Meaning of the Statute
¶ 3. The wording of the statute is not entirely clear, requiring us to discern the practical operation of its provisions. For example, section 2(a) declares that “[n]o child under the age of eighteen has the right to get married in the state of Dixie.” This provision does not itself prohibit child marriage, it merely declares there is no right for persons under eighteen to marry. Taken alone, this provision would simply mean that municipalities and local governments are permitted to decline to recognize child marriages.
¶ 4. However, the canons of statutory interpretation require us to read the entire statute and give effect to all of its provisions. As a result, we conclude that section 2(a), read in conjunction with the other provisions of the statute, not only allows municipalities to prohibit child marriage but further prohibits all child marriage, including both effective participation in it and issuances of licenses recognizing it.
¶ 5. For example, subsection 2(a)(i) imposes criminal sanctions against “any civil or religious person” (emphasis added). Because only judges and clerks may issue marriage licenses, the language encompasses “any” civil or religious “person”--as opposed to limiting the language to clerks or judges--compels the conclusion that the statute reaches both civilly-recognized and privately-practiced child marriages.
¶ 6. This understanding is supported by the Act’s legislative history. The persons speaking on the floor in support of the bill spoke about the prohibition in broad terms. For example, cold_brew_coffee called for the body to pass the Act so that “no minor can be coerced into an unscrupulous marriage.” Likewise, GuiltyAir said:
¶ 6A. It's without a doubt that I fully stand in support of this bill and I question the morality of those who don't. I know a lot of you see this bill today are probably already thinking that child marriages are already banned, but that just isn't true. It happens in America more than any one of us would like and I'm glad that Dixie is tackling the issue head-on. There is absolutely no reason nor should there be of someone under the age of 18 getting married, which is the age of consent and generally regarded as the age when someone becomes an adult.
¶ 7. In speaking this broadly about the breadth and likely effect of the Act, these commentators confirm that the purpose of the Assembly was to reach beyond declining to recognize a “right” to child marriage to withdraw all legal recognition and to impose criminal sanction upon those practicing child marriage in private.
III. Statute Constitutional Generally
A. Free Exercise
¶ 8. We hold that, while strict scrutiny applies due to the free exercise standard announced in Carey v. Dixie Inn, 2020 U.S. 1, and due to Dixie’s religious freedom law, the law is constitutional except for the single provision addressed infra because it is narrowly tailored to advance a compelling government interest.
1. Strict Scrutiny Applies
¶ 9. The high standard of strict scrutiny applies for two independent reasons.
¶ 10. First, it has become increasingly apparent that the standard governing First Amendment free exercise claims is no longer the relaxed standard of “rational basis” set forth in Employment Division v. Smith, 494 U.S. 872 (1990), but rather strict scrutiny, as previously articulated by this Court in Carey v. Dixie Inn, Dx. No. 19-21 (Sept. 2019) (“We concur with the appellee that Smith is simply no longer an applicable test as the United States Supreme Court has since moved on from its usage”) and reiterated on appeal by the Supreme Court in that same case, Carey v. Dixie Inn, 2020 U.S. 1, ¶ 12 (“When . . . thoughts or words turn to behavior -- to ACTION -- those actions, as manifestations of the religious beliefs (whatever they are) can be regulated, but only when such regulations are necessary to a compelling state interest, are narrowly tailored to achieve the purpose, and use the least restrictive means of achieving the purpose.”). See also In re Stopping Abuse and Indoctrination of Children Act, 100 M.S. Ct. 111 (2016) (applying strict scrutiny to neutral and generally applicable statute challenged on free exercise grounds).
¶ 11. Second, Dixie statutory law, Dx. Stat. § 761.03, requires that where the government “substantially burden[s] a person’s exercise of religion, even if the burden results from a rule of general applicability” the government must “demonstrate[ ] that application of the burden to the person” is “in furtherance of a compelling governmental interest” and “the least restrictive means of furthering that compelling governmental interest.” See Carey v. Dixie Inn, 2018 Dx. App. 1, at 3 (2018), *aff’d Dx. No. 19-21 (Sept. 2019) (applying section 761.03).
¶ 12. Because we find strict scrutiny applies for these two distinct reasons, we need not reach the question of whether the law is “neutral” or “generally applicable.”
2. The Statute Survives Strict Scrutiny
¶ 13. Notwithstanding that strict scrutiny applies, the statute is constitutional because the statute advances a compelling government interest and does so in a manner narrowly tailored to achieve that government interest.
¶ 14. We reach this conclusion pursuant to an independent analysis because while once strict scrutiny was considered “strict in theory but fatal in fact,” Gerald Gunther, The Supreme Court, 1971--Forward: In Search of Evolving Doctrine on a Changing Court: A Model for a Newer Equal Protection, 86 Harv. L. Rev., 1, 8 (1972), this is no longer the case. E.g., Note: Strict in Theory, Not Fatal in Fact: An Analysis of Federal Affirmative Action Programs in the Wake of Adarand v. Pena, 11 St. John’s J. Legal Comment 101 (1996). Most recently, the United States Supreme Court in its decision in Dixie Inn applied strict scrutiny but nonetheless upheld the statute in question. See Carey v. Dixie Inn, 2020 U.S 1.
¶ 15. We begin by noting that the statute advances a compelling government interest in preserving the health and well-being of minors. The legislative findings of the Act, for example, notes that under child marriages girls “are more likely to face health risks and the families are more likely to perpetuate the cycle of poverty.”
¶ 16. It is well-established that preserving the health and well-being of the public, and of minors in particular, constitutes a compelling government interest. See, e.g., Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 310 (1978) (“It may be assumed that in some situations a State's interest in facilitating the health care of its citizens is sufficiently compelling to support the use of a suspect classification.”); Buchwald v. Univ. of N.M. Sch. of Med., 159 F.3d 487, 498 (10th Cir.1998) (citing Bakke to conclude that “public health is a compelling government interest”); Legatus v. Sebelius, 901 F. Supp. 2d 980, 991 (E.D. Mich. 2012); Mead v. Holder, 766 F. Supp. 2d 16, 43 (D.D.C.2011) (“The Government clearly has a compelling interest in safeguarding the public health by regulating the health care and insurance markets.”); Dickerson v. Stuart, 877 F. Supp. 1556, 1559 (M.D.Fla.1995) (“The State of Florida has a compelling interest in the health of expectant mothers and the safe delivery of newborn babies.”).
¶ 17. Furthermore, the statute is narrowly tailored to advance these compelling interests. The statute here targets harms specific to child marriage, which are well-documented. E.g., Nour, Nawal M. “Health consequences of child marriage in Africa.” Emerging infectious diseases vol. 12,11 (2006): 1644-9. doi:10.3201/eid1211.060510. Indeed, the United Nations has identified child marriage as a serious global problem, explaining “[c]hild marriage threatens the lives, well-being and futures of girls around the world.” E.g., Child Marriage, UNICEF, available at https://www.unicef.org/protection/child-marriage. One study, for example, has outlined the harms that necessarily result from child marriage and specifically cites to research conducted by the United Nations:
¶ 17A. The negative consequences of child marriage are considerable for girls, their families, their communities, and ultimately their countries. At the individual level, child marriage deprives girls of basic human rights and marks an abrupt end to childhood, bringing on a rapid transition to adulthood and forcing girls to take on adult roles and responsibilities before they are developmentally ready (UNICEF 2001 and 2005; Mathur, Greene, and Malhotra 2003; Jain and Kurz 2007). Moreover, because child marriage in most societies is quickly followed by childbearing, the risk of maternal mortality and morbidity and infant mortality increases (UNICEF 2001 and 2005; Bott et al. 2003; Mathur, Greene, and Malhotra 2003; Save the Children 2004; Mensch, Singh, and Casterline 2005). Young married girls are also at greater risk of intimate partner violence (IPV) (Santhya et al. 2010) and HIV/AIDS (Clark 2004). Child marriage is negatively associated with girls’ education as well. Although the direction of causality in this relationship likely runs in both directions, the evidence is strong that girls with low levels of schooling are more likely to be married early, and child marriage typically puts an end to a girl’s education (Jejeebhoy 1995; Mathur, Greene, and Malhotra 2003; Mensch, Singh, and Casterline 2005). Lack of education and restricted access to peers limit a child bride’s support systems; without skills, mobility, and connections, her ability to overcome poverty for herself, her children, and her family is hindered (Preston-Whyte et al. 1990; Singh 1998; Zabin and Kiragu 1998). Susan Lee‐Rife, et al., What Works to Prevent Child Marriage: A Review of the Evidence, 43 Studies in Family Planning 287 (2012).
¶ 18. These harms are specifically linked to child marriage and are demonstrably caused by child marriage. While the state can seek to advance the general interest of child well-being in other ways, prohibition of child marriage is the only way the state can address the harms caused by child marriage itself.
¶ 19. For similar reasons, Petitioner’s insistence that the state is able to address the evils associated with child marriage, such as sexual abuse and rape, in the absence of prohibiting child marriage carries no weight. Notably, statutory rape statutes do not extend to the marital relationship.
¶ 20. Petitioner also claims that the state could achieve its interests more narrowly by requiring parental and judicial consent and by raising the minimum age for marriage to 17.1 This argument is unpersuasive.
1 Meta: In briefing, Petitioner invoked Florida Statute section 741.04, which restricts the circumstances under which a certificate to marry may be issued to persons under 18, is proof that the Act is not “narrowly tailored.” However, that statute was passed and signed into law before (March 2018) the date of canon divergence (July 2018) but not effective until July 2018, subsequent to the date of canon divergence and therefore is not in effect in the Model US Government Universe. Instead, we treat this argument as a hypothetical alternative proposal advanced by Petitioner.
¶ 21. First, Petitioner herself is 16 years old. Accordingly, even if Petitioner were right that the instant statute is unconstitutional, she would still be unable to marry under her own hypothetical proposal. Second, Petitioner’s arguments aimed at the instant statute apply with equal force to her own hypothetical proposal.
¶ 22. Third, and most important, however: the proposal’s “narrower” prohibition on child marriage does not address all concerns the legislature sought to address. For example, Petitioner’s hypothetical may require parental consent and judicial approval of certain child marriages but such consent and approval often fails to prevent egregious harms. In one column in The New York Times, Nicholas Kristof recounted the tale of a child who was forced by her parents to marry her rapist; the judge approved the marriage “to end the rape investigation” and told her “[w]hat we want is for you to get married.” Nicholas Kristof, 11 Years Old, a Mom, and Pushed to Marry Her Rapist in Florida, New York Times (May 26, 2017), https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/opinion/sunday/it-was-forcedon-me-child-marriage-in-the-us.html. While the hypothetical would also raise the minimum wage, the requirement of parental and judicial approval is obviously insufficient. In addition, all minors, not just those under 17, suffer under childhood marriage because by virtue of being minors they face greater barriers to objecting to or leaving the marriage than non-minors.
¶ 23. Fourth, the Act recognizes and reacts to the reality that child marriage is practiced both through legal recognition and without such recognition. Famously, the leader of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints took on several child brides, notwithstanding his inability to obtain marriage licenses for those marriages. Chris Baynes, Warren Jeffs: Child bride reveals horrors of life under fundamentalist Mormon sect leader, The Independent (Feb. 20, 2018), available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/warren-jeffs-child-bride-horrors-mormon-sect-leader-elissa-wall-a8219246.html. The Act furthers the government’s interest in protecting children from these situations because, first, many of the harms associated with child marriage still exist without legal recognition of the union and even if the child spouse is not subjected to sexual activity and, second, because prosecutions for statutory rape in this context is extraordinarily hard. Jeffs, for example, is currently serving a prison term for sexually assaulting two underage girls--but he had dozens of wives, many of them underage.
¶ 24. For these reasons, we find that the Act is narrowly tailored to advance a compelling government interest and, therefore, is constitutional.
B. Fundamental Right to Marry
¶ 25. Petitioner also claims that the Act violates the fundamental right to marry as guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment and also, supposedly, by the Dixie constitution. We address each contention in turn.
¶ 26. First, there can be little doubt that there exists a fundamental right to marry guaranteed by the United States Constitution. [cite]. Even assuming, without holding, that such a right applies to Petitioner, this does not mean the statute must fail: a fundamental right triggers strict scrutiny, not necessarily a finding of unconstitutionality. In a case considering a constitutional challenge to a ban on same-sex marriage, for example, the Ninth Circuit specifically addressed child marriage:
¶ 26A. "[F]undamental rights may sometimes permissibly be abridged: when the laws at issue further compelling state interests, to which they are narrowly tailored. Although such claims are not before us, it is not difficult to envision that states could proffer substantially more compelling justifications for such laws than have been put forward in support of the same-sex marriage bans at issue here." Latta v. Otter, 771 F.3d 456, 478 n. 2 (9th Cir. 2014).
¶ 27. Although this passage is dicta, it is also an uncontroversial proposition: that, even assuming the fundamental right to marry applies to child marriages, the standard of strict scrutiny is met because, as outlined above, because prohibiting child marriage is narrowly tailored to advance a compelling government interest.
¶ 28. Petitioner also invokes a “right to marriage” putatively guaranteed by Article I, Section 27 of the Dixie Constitution. Yet that provision guarantees no right: it merely “defines” marriage as “the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife” and bars recognition of any “other legal union.” This provision was adopted as a constitutional amendment in 2008 to prevent recognition of same-sex marriage; it was adopted to restrict the rights of Dixieans, not expand them. In fact, if anything, Section 27 precludes any recognition of child marriage under state law. By defining marriage as between “one man and one woman,” section 27 restricts marriage to two adult humans: the definition of “man” is “an adult human male” and the definition of “woman” is “an adult human female.”
IV. Removal of Ministers Unconstitutional
¶ 29. By demanding the removal of offenders from “civil and religious” positions, section (a)(i)(1) of the Act violates the constitutional right to free exercise of religion and prohibition on the establishment of religion. “The Establishment Clause prevents the Government from appointing ministers, and the Free Exercise Clause prevents it from interfering with the freedom of religious groups to select their own.” Hosanna-Tabor Evangelical Lutheran Church & Sch. v. Equal Emp't Opportunity Comm'n, 565 U.S. 171, 184 (2012). Thus the Supreme Court has recognized a “ministerial exception,” a constitutional principle which prohibits such interference.
¶ 30. Were Section (a)(i)(1) permitted to stand, it would result in the government dictating to religious entities who could and could not serve as their clergy or other ministerial positions, an unacceptable outcome that flies in the face of all constitutional jurisprudence. Id. at 190-191 (noting appellate court consensus that “the ministerial exception is not limited to the head of a religious congregation”).
¶ 31. We therefore find Section (2)(a)(i)(1) unconstitutional and enjoin its enforcement to the extent it applies to the removal of persons covered by the constitutional ministerial exception.
V. Conclusion
¶ 32. For the reasons set forth above, we find that the statute is constitutional except as to Section 2(a)(i)(1).
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2020.08.06 18:54 iluvitwet How I fucked up, & my plan.

I fucked up big time last Friday & had a moment of weakness walking through the red light district, I asked for a blow job but she asked me to fuck.
She put a condom on me and as I started to push myself into her the weight of what I was doing / what was happening made me feel sick & I pulled away took the condom off & washed my hands & ran outside to vomit.
I have a long term girlfriend at home, who did cheat on me 4 years ago with a guy who also was in a relationship, I thought I’d never take her back after she broke up with me when I first found out but in the end I decided I loved her too much.
We had a few rough patches over the years and it took me a long time to get over it. I thought she was gonna end it with me wt first earlier this year before Covid hit us but since then I’ve felt ever increasingly close to her & more in love & enthralled with her- other than some weird vibe I got from a colleague that liked her. All was great, I was dreaming of our future... until I fucked up.
I work with her dad , and had just got into a good place with work for the first time in my 16 months there not hating every minute and feeling like I didn’t feel as anxious as I used too.
We were/ are saving up to buy a place together which when I felt at my darkest points (been on and off with suicidal thoughts for many years) was my saving grace. I’m now realising you have to be content with yourself because if u mess up so bad or they do then u might only have yourself.
I had an overwhelming urge to kill myself straight after what I did / tried too. I might do still, as I keep spiralling I plan to tell her on Sunday what happened and let the chips fall where they do. I can’t really tell her before then as she works late and I work during the day and I don’t want to fuck her shift. My first change is Sunday but we have our first date in ages & i had booked her favourite restaurant ages ago. I think I’ll just wait until after & then tell her. She’s on her period now so I don’t think there’s any chance of us being intimate & me passing anything to her if I did contract anything.
I’ve got a call with the doctor tomorrow & took a postal chlymidia & the clap pee test just in case I caught those. I tried to take a syphilis test & hiv but I couldn’t get enough blood out of my fingers and felt queasy doing it. I’m hoping the dr will allow me to go to the std clinic to get tested in person tomorrow.
I thought about just not saying anything briefly, but I know the weight of that on my mind would just cause us other problems & also if I passed anything to her whilst keeping this secret I would definitely not be able to live with myself no ifs no buts.
Sorry for the violins. I know this is all my fault. I just feel sick to my stomach at what I tried to do, that I’ve fucked up everything that means something to me. For someone that was hurt so bad by this, I can’t believe I tried to do the same thing. My intentions maybe were slightly different but I don’t think that matters.
I would often smoke weed to ease my mind but that just makes my thoughts even more overwhelming now.
At least I’ve decided if I do kill myself I’ll split my savings in half between my little sister and my girlfriend so they have something nice to remember me by and help them in the future. It will make more a difference to my sister for sure as my gf makes a lot of money as it is but still a few thousand will make a bit of a difference.
I’m hoping I haven’t destroyed my dream of a little cottage, 2 kids, some puppies & kittens running around and my girlfriend being my wife but I will have to accept it if that’s the case.
Thanks for reading, I know I’m a piece of shit. Just trying to keep going for next few days and we’ll see what happens.
If anyone is reading this who might be considering the same mistake I made, please don’t. It really might be the single biggest mistake of your life.
I wanted to dive into the canals where this happened straight after that wouldn’t have killed me though.
I think I’ll jump off some scenic cliffs if it really comes to it. Of course I would try to continue, but I’m so sure shes the one. A long while ago, when I was very down- I did my research on the best place to jump and guarantee death. My friend told me a while ago you can buy meds online to kill yourself, which would be so much more convenient- I hear u can od on more common meds but often a painful al/ excruciating way to go. Think he said those meds were around 1000.
Edit: I feel like such a creep, I know I was stoned out of my mind & horny but idk why I let myself think this would be ok. My penis even feels weird now although it might week be all in my head.
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